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View Diary: Mitt Romney says spending cuts will shrink economy and destroy jobs ... so why does he support them? (60 comments)

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  •  Which should make you wonder: why? Just what (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HappyinNM

    is it about the 'national' polls that is so disconnected from the state polls.  The State polls are almost certainly more accurate, not simply b/c they are polling smaller electorates and so have a much larger comparative sample size, they know their actualy partisan/demo breakdown and likely turnout, etc., but b/c they have a much better track record.

    •  I dont think it's national polls that are wrong (0+ / 0-)

      necessarily, it's that the daily tracking polls are fairly volatile. As I noted above, wait a week, and it's a god chance Obama is doing better. Then the week after, it will be Romney.

      •  Actually, it looks to me like most of the national (0+ / 0-)

        polls have the race at least 3-5% closer than the state polls.  And its not just Ras.  You simply can not have BO up by 7 or 9 in PA and VA, to name 2 examples, and losing or only up by a few nationally.  His lead is so consistent and so (relatively) large in the states where the voters are that I just can't see evenn 60-40 splits in the uber red necks explaining it.

    •  Rasmussen's state polls may align with their (0+ / 0-)

      national polls. But Rasmussen weights their polls to favor Repukes. I wouldn't put too much stock in anything they report.

      Your left is my right---Mort Sahl

      by HappyinNM on Tue May 08, 2012 at 11:04:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed, but I'm talking aggragates, which is reall (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HappyinNM

        y the only sensible way to read polling.  Even if you include Rass in that, national vs state polling is extremely disconnected, as the Election Wrap diary has been ptg out for weeks.

        I have my suspicions why (likely the same as yours) but I haven't seen a rigorous explanation.

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