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View Diary: Breaking Gallup Poll on Obama's Gay Marriage Stance (155 comments)

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  •  This poll confirms that Obama will lose votes (0+ / 0-)

    Which is what I suspected.  The only question is whether it will hurt him enough to cost him the election.  

    •  But those loss of votes may never have been (2+ / 0-)
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      TofG, gramofsam1

      in Obama's column in the first place.

      Just ask the question does Obama's race make you more likely to vote for him, less likely to vote for him, or no factor.  I suspect that answer will be the same as gay marriage.

      President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

      by Drdemocrat on Fri May 11, 2012 at 02:42:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If he loses the election, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      it will be because of Tim Geithner, not gay marriage.

    •  Huh? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, StellaRay

      It doesn't confirm that at all. You can't make judgments about that 26/13 ratio without having further context -- i.e. how many of those were already leaning strongly for or against the president in the first place?

      If a pollster called me today, I would tell them 1) I support Obama over Romney; 2) Romney's bullying as a teenager is disturbing; and 3) Romney's bullying as a teenager makes me less likely to vote for him.

      Should my response to #3 be a concern to Romney? Not at all. I was never going to vote for him in the first place.

    •  I don't think you get how "less likely" works. (4+ / 0-)
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      Wildthumb, jj32, StellaRay, gramofsam1

      The revelations about Romney's boyhood bullying makes me less likely to vote for him.

      The chance I would vote for him went from 0.00001% to 0.000005%.

      Equating the "less likely" result to a supposition "that Obama will lose votes" is meaningless without a breakdown of how many people changed their vote based on the statement.

      I actually feel that he will lose some votes, but have no basis for that feeling.

      A second issue is where he loses votes. If southern blacks in red states decide not to vote for him, but swing state LGBT's and their supporters move from not voting to actively campaigning for him, the statement might cause him to lose votes while actually increasing the chance that he will be elected.

    •  This is May and the election is November. (1+ / 0-)
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      By then the gay issue just might not be that important except to hardcore conservatives. Other issues will surely dominate, and in about ninety days I'd like to see a poll
      of issues that dominate.

      I was seeing what Adam had seen on the morning of his creation - the miracle, moment by moment, of naked existence. --The Doors of Perception, Aldous Huxley

      by Wildthumb on Fri May 11, 2012 at 03:31:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This poll confirms nothing of the sort. (0+ / 0-)

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