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View Diary: Breaking Gallup Poll on Obama's Gay Marriage Stance (155 comments)

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  •  Kerry won Pennsylvania (Q.E.D.) (0+ / 0-)

    Per my comment, Obama must win one of these four states: PA, OH, FL, or NC. Kerry barely won PA with 50.9%, 48.4% went for Bush, 0.4% Badnarik (Libertarian), 0.4% other.  

    Kerry also won NH (4 EC votes), which in 2012 is considered a swing state in part because of Romney's MA proximity and popularity there. Kerry had that MA advantage in 2004; in 2000 Bush won NH against Gore, but Obama took it from him in 2008. With PA and NH, Kerry got 252 EC votes (Bush 286).

    While nothing is ordained in an election until the votes are publicly counted and the Supreme Court rules, the current consensus of pollsters and pundits is that Obama has 227 EC votes he can count on -- which btw already includes New Mexico's 6. This means he needs 43 more EC votes.

    Even if he could win Iowa (6), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6), that's only 21 votes among those three. He'd still need 22 more. FL has 27 (that'd do it!), PA 21, OH 20 and NC 15. Losing NC is a "big f'ing deal" (to quote Biden).

    The only other state considered "in play" is VA (13).

    Put another way, Obama has to win all the Kerry states including NH and PA, and still win NM, and then VA, or CO+IA, or CO+NV.  (If he lost VA and CO and won IA+NV it'd be a 269 tie which he'd likely lose in the House, where each state gets only one vote, and the # of red states > blue. Btw, there are 5 reasonably-possible scenarios for a tie. The Senate chooses the VP. The House must chose by Jan 20, or the Senate's VP becomes acting President. If neither chooses by Jan 20, the [new] House Speaker becomes acting President -- with lawsuits galore, and a national crisis.)

    Bottom line: this is much, much closer an election than people seem to realize, and there are only nine states in play, including NC. Obama must win at least one of these four crucial states: PA, OH, FL, or NC. I'm cautiously optimistic, I currently see him winning 275 EC votes (carrying PA, OH, NV, and NM).

    •  It's not that close. (0+ / 0-)

      No blue states are at threat by Rmoney.  He is a shitty candidate. With a few good months of economic data, Obama will win the election (including a majority of the battleground  states) by about the same margin as he beat McCain if not larger.

      Alternative rock with something to say:

      by khyber900 on Sun May 13, 2012 at 12:16:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  bet your life-savings on Intrade (0+ / 0-)

        You're so confident, you'll make a fortune.

        "Obama to win in 2012" is selling at 59.1% ($5.91/share). For something you are so certain about, this is incredibly good odds in your favor. In fact, you should mortgage your house and borrow money if you can (from anywhere), you'll win it all back (and 40% profit) in November! You can spend it on good causes (or savings or consumption). Put your money where your typing is.

        Don't delay, other people will catch on. Here's the link:

        This market will settle at $10.00/share if Barack Obama is elected President of the United States in 2012. This market will settle at $0.00/share if Barack Obama is not elected President of the United States in 2012.

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