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View Diary: Congressional Race Ratings (12 May 2012) (100 comments)

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  •  Thoughts (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GradyDem, MichaelNY

    CA-45: If John Campbell loses, you guys are getting all but four CA seats. Do you know how well Whitman and Fiorina did in his seat?

    PA-06: Gerlach got to 57% in 2010 and his seat was given an extra 5 points of security. Not sure how he loses. . .

    PA-07: This is a 51% Obama seat with a popular former US Attorney and former DelCo DA (Meehan) running against a "some dude" lawyer (Badey) who isn't well funded or well known. Really not sure how Meehan loses.

    NY-23: Reed's opponent isn't anything special, it seems, and his seat is super ancestrally R. Not sure how he loses.

    MI-07: Walberg's opponent is the definition of a some dude and he's not well funded at all. . . why does that race only lean R?

    MI-03: Yes, Pestka is a good get for Democrats, but this is a super ancestrally Republican seat with an incumbent with some decent appeal (a lot of independents really like him, although some Rs aren't happy with him). I guess I could live with likely R but not lean R. Do you realize how Republican Kent County still is locally? I think its County Board of Commissioners is like 80 or 85% Republican.

    IN-08: Bucshon is generic R and Crooks is a good get for you guys. Still, I don't see how Bucshon loses unless Obama romps in Indiana, something I don't see happening.

    There were more races I disagreed with, but I'll just say these for now.

    Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

    by IllinoyedR on Sat May 12, 2012 at 07:10:46 PM PDT

    •  Badey isn't well funded? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, atdnext

      You didn't read his latest fundraising report, then.

      Rep. Walberg is extremely far to the right, and the Democrats have a county chairman running for the seat.

      Rep. Amash is a moron. I'm not sure how he defends his record when the only thing he does is vote "present" or "nay" on everything. And Pestka is a great get for us.

      I think Crooks runs about five points ahead of President Obama. And I think Obama has no worse than a 40% chance of winning Indiana outright. I give the edge to Rep. Bucshon, but it's not hard to see how Crooks beats him.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary. Fired up! Ready to go!

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat May 12, 2012 at 07:24:42 PM PDT

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    •  MI7, MI3, IN8 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, MichaelNY

      Walberg is not that strong. He barely beat Schauer in 2010, and the district was made only about a point more red. His opponent is weaker than Schauer but he isn't a Some Dude, he's a union and Dem party official so he has some background. I think lean R is about right for a presidential year.

      Amash isn't a typical Republican, he's a Paulist. He appeals to libertarian independents, but could easily lose a lot of people who usually vote R. The district isn't a hotbed of libertarianism especially now that Battle Creek is in it. He might win big again, but he isn't generic R like he was in 2010. Lean R makes sense for now.

      IN8 is a really swingy district at the House level. Bucshon should run better than Hostettler did (2010 wasn't a real test, anyone with an R next to his name would have won then) but the district was made less red and Dems have a higher ceiling there than in most red districts. Lean R.

      I agree with you on the other four.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sun May 13, 2012 at 08:08:34 AM PDT

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      •  MI-07 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Keep in mind they took out Battle Creek, the most ancestrally Democratic and area which was Walberg's toughest area.

        Also, I thought that your only recruit in MI-07 was still the guy who noticed the underwear bomber and told someone on the plane. That I will concede I was wrong on.

        Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

        by IllinoyedR on Sun May 13, 2012 at 12:35:28 PM PDT

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    •  you're in a bubble. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sapelcovits

      Incumbents never lose.  It's inconceivable.  Until they do.  Crazy shit happens sometimes, like last Tuesday in Indiana, and outcomes of elections in swingish districts are not that safe to predict.

      And a party official is not the same as a some dude.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Sun May 13, 2012 at 12:12:12 PM PDT

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      •  Party Official (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I was still under the assumption that that lawyer who had noticed the underwear bomber was the only Dem recruit in MI-07.

        Oh, and I'm most certainly not in a bubble. There are quite a few incumbents whom I think WILL lose, it's just that the ones I pointed out are quite unlikely to lose. I guess we'll have to compare our predictions and the eventual results in 2012.

        Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

        by IllinoyedR on Sun May 13, 2012 at 12:30:59 PM PDT

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        •  i do think you're too optimistic on Amash (4+ / 0-)

          that guy is not in line with his constituents at all; Grand Rapids is a mix of BizCons and SoCons and Amash is a libertarian.

          A SoCon Blue Dog is equally in line with those views.  Amash just has the incumbency advantage.

          19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

          by jncca on Sun May 13, 2012 at 01:13:09 PM PDT

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    •  NY-23 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I just got moved from Reed's district to Hanna's district, but I can tell you that there is no way Reed will lose this year.  5 of the 11 counties in his district actually went for crazy Carl Paladino in 2010.

      The likely Dem candidate is Nate Shinagawa, a Tompkins County Legislator.  It's hard for me to see anyone from Tompkins County being elected in this district.  Best candidate that Dems could run here would probably be Elmira mayor John Tonello.

      NY-22 (old and new)

      by elucas730 on Mon May 14, 2012 at 05:21:51 AM PDT

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      •  I think Paladino overperformed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        in western NY, did he not?

        22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Mon May 14, 2012 at 10:24:37 AM PDT

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        •  Paladino "overperformed" (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          Because he was from western NY.  Chatauqua County, the largest in NY-23, went to Obama by a point.  But crazy Carl won by 30.  You will see something similar in congressional voting.  Chataqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegeny will not vote for an Ithaca Democrat.  Reed will likely get over 60% of the vote in all those counties.  He should also hit 60% in Tioga County and his home county of Steuben.  Tompkins County will of course go 70% for the Democrat, no matter who it is.  The counties in the middle, Yates, Chemung, Ontario, Seneca will probably end up slightly R.

          The district is designed to pit an Ithaca Democrat against a Republican from Jamestown, Corning, or Elmira.  The Democratic bench outside of Ithaca is non existant.  State Senators, assemblymen, county executives, all Republican.  Best Dem hope is to nominate a mayor from Jamestown or Elmira.  Ithaca will still go 70% Dem, but they may be able to win some of the western NY vote.  As it stands now though, NY-23 is Safe R.

          NY-22 (old and new)

          by elucas730 on Mon May 14, 2012 at 11:40:58 AM PDT

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    •  Walberg (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      he has a (former?) local Dem party chair running against him, i.e. someone with political connections and at least some experience. So no, not the definition of a some dude.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon May 14, 2012 at 10:18:01 AM PDT

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      •  Please read upthread (0+ / 0-)

        As I've said before, I thought his only opponent was still the quirky lawyer who noticed the underwear bomber.

        Home: IL-10. College: PA-07 (starting this upcoming fall).

        by IllinoyedR on Mon May 14, 2012 at 01:06:53 PM PDT

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