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View Diary: Congressional Race Ratings (12 May 2012) (100 comments)

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  •  Maybe I should be more optimistic (2+ / 0-)
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    MichaelNY, lordpet8

    I grew up here and spent a lot of time campaigning around the area. It is not the easiest turf for democrats. Times are changing though and two Dems in that area just won special elections.

    Some points:
    1) I am not sure that Sean Patrick Maloney will win the primary.

    2) Rep. Hayworth has more than a million on hand. She is a favorite of the establishment Republicans. The NRCC really wants to hold this seat. I don't think she will get outspent.

    3) This is historically is a "moderate" Republican seat. Sue Kelly's loss was a surprise in 2006. Some people would even blame that loss on the connection to the Mark Foley scandal. Rep. Hayworth has some "moderate" elements to her and she will have the resources to highlight them.

    M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

    by slacks on Sun May 13, 2012 at 05:19:09 PM PDT

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