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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Eyepopping downballot numbers kick off the week (116 comments)

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  •  I am going to update state polling (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah, LordMike, savvyspy

    as I did a couple of weeks ago, but the average hasn't changed much at all:
    Photobucket

    There have been some not so good numbers (maine only +8, Michigan +5.5, Oregon +4) but at the same time SUSA had Obama up 14 in Minnesota and Washington.

    I would be lying if I said I wasn't concerned at all, but the state average in May has held up.

    Which is why I look at state averages (where you get far more polls and by a more diverse set of pollsters) as opposed to national polls.

    Breathe.  Deep.  Everything is OK.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Mon May 14, 2012 at 09:23:41 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Chris Bowers effect right? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Average the state polls and you get the equal accuracy as Nate Silver's number wheel.

      •  the idea of taking the (0+ / 0-)

        average of state polls and generating a national number was mine.......

        Chris look at state polling averages and the probability that a lead would be sustained.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Tue May 15, 2012 at 04:42:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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