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View Diary: More than 230,000 lose unemployment benefits in eight states due to cuts (33 comments)

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  •  So the unemployment statistics are based upon (2+ / 0-)

    this rate?  So as people can no longer get unemployment they go from the U-3 rate to the U-6 category?  

    If this is true, unemployment numbers will drop, which will upset Republicans because people are used to the U-3 numbers being reported and too many take them as gospel so they'll think Obama's employment record will be improving.  Yet people will know that even with unemployment going down, they haven't found work yet and they'll probably get more desparate because now they don't have even the pittance of unemployment to help them along.  So the summer of discontent will become ever more restive, encouraging the throw them all out mentality and Republicans can play on people not understanding (and not hearing) that the Republican House refuses to pass bills to create jobs (at least bills that could get through the Senate and the President).  So the Republicans celebrate.

    At least for the moment I've got Democratic members of Congress as well as a Democratic governor.  Purple Colorado will hopefully return Obama to office, and maybe restore a district or two to blue after the last couple of years.

    •  No. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ColoTim, arealniceguy

      "Unemployment drops" is referring to the state unemployment rate; a person's classification for the unemployment rate has nothing to do with getting benefits.

      •  What I'm (inelegantly saying) is does this have (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        arealniceguy

        any affect on the statistics about "new claims for unemployment"?  I thought one of the reasons that number has been falling is because people are exceeding their 99 weeks, and now that they have even less time, suddenly the numbers that this diary is about are going to be dropping from the roles, thereby dropping the number of people applying for unemployment.  I am probably wrong on this, though.

        Thanks in advance.

        •  "new claims for unemployment" (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ColoTim, arealniceguy

          are people applying for the very first time. There is another measurement that totals all the people on unemployment benefits. As people fall off the unemployment rolls because they have found a job, or exhaust their benefits, that is where the end of these programs would show up in the data.  

          "let's talk about that"

          by VClib on Mon May 14, 2012 at 03:23:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks. Perhaps we'll hear numbers this week (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            arealniceguy

            then, on either Thursday or Friday.  The people are going to know, however, that a sharp drop in the number of unemployed doesn't equal that more people have found work.

            •  ColoT - you seem to have missed it (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              arealniceguy, ColoTim

              People exhausting their unemployment benefits have no impact on the "unemployment rate" or what economists refer to as U3. That number comes from a telephone survey and the number of people collecting unemployment benefits is not in any way used to determine the "unemployment rate".

              "let's talk about that"

              by VClib on Mon May 14, 2012 at 06:53:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  ColoT - they are not connected (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ColoTim, arealniceguy

      U3 and U6 are based on a monthly telephone survey. It does not matter if someone is receiving unemployment benefits or not. All that matters is how many people in a household are employed and how many are unemployed and actively seeking work. For U6 they ask some additional questions.

      "let's talk about that"

      by VClib on Mon May 14, 2012 at 03:19:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In theory. However, I would bet at least some (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Siri

        of the people doing the surveys have drunk the right wing kool-aid and marked people down as "left the labor force" or "discouraged worker" simply because they exhausted their benefits under the theory that if "you haven't found a job in XX weeks then you aren't really looking".  Has anyone done a survey of the people doing the BLS surveys to see how many of them do that?

        There is no saving throw against stupid.

        by Throw The Bums Out on Tue May 15, 2012 at 07:38:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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