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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll: After gay marriage decision, Obama's standing unchanged (87 comments)

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  •  The national polling will remain close (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elmo, wishingwell, Khun David, pademocrat

    through the election.  Both candidates are now in the mid to lower high 40s.  The country is very divided, with many already having their choice locked in absent some sort of external shock.

    I suspect that neither candidate will get above 50% on election night, even if the Electoral College is a blow out, with one candidate getting over 300 EC votes.  I'm more interested in the state by state polling for this reason.  That won't change unless and until (and if) one candidate gets over 50% in multiple national polls - only then could the national polling drive a narrative of one candidate winning, which influences those asshat voters in the middle who prefer to vote for the winner.

    "The attack on the truth by war begins long before war starts and continues long after a war ends." -Julian Assange

    by Pierro Sraffa on Tue May 15, 2012 at 09:52:11 AM PDT

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