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View Diary: New Daily Kos/PPP poll shows Wisconsin gubernatorial recall picture unchanged (290 comments)

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  •  Exactly so (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tommypaine, Odysseus, rosarugosa

    CBS exit polling in Nov 2008 had voters in the state self-identify as Dem +6; even in Nov 2010 it was still Dem +1. The Marquette poll from two weeks ago had a polled sample of Dem +3. Rasmussen (I've been told) was Repub +3. But PPP comes up with Rupub +7? Huh?

    When you register in WI, you do not 'declare' a party affiliation; it is simply nowhere on the form. So coming up with the Dem vs Repub vs Ind mix for your poll is always the key element.

    When PPP polled WI governor's race in 2010, they used a Repub +5 mix, which got them a 'Walker by 9' result. Walker only won by 6 points.  

    I have a very hard time buying a Repub +7 mix.

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