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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Jeff Landry finally decides to take on Charles Boustany (132 comments)

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  •  I think AZ and MO (5+ / 0-)

    are the only new states Obama can pick off without a massive landslide.  That's more a tribute to Obama's success in 2008 than anything else.  Good sign that he seems to be going for it in both states at the moment.

    •  I think Montana is gettable as well... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, sapelcovits, bythesea, Odysseus

      But might not be worth the effort for a paltry three electoral votes, since the president won't win any state bordering it anyway.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary. Fired up! Ready to go!

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 16, 2012 at 05:51:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Considering How Small of an Investment MT Is..... (5+ / 0-)

        .....I think he'd be crazy not to put up ads there.  Ditto for the Dakotas, particularly since ad buys in the Dakotas bleed into western Minnesota.

        •  If you look at 2008 vs 2004 (3+ / 0-)

          The part of MN where Obama improved the most over Kerry was the Red River Valley.  I think advertising explains this best.  Obama was up in the Dakotas, McCain was not. Also Minnesota as a whole was one of the few states where McCain actually spent more money than Obama, meaning his swing there was less than in other parts of the upper midwest.

          29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

          by Marcus Graly on Wed May 16, 2012 at 06:14:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Indeed..... (7+ / 0-)

   can tell which media market a Minnesota county is in simply by comparing Obama's 2008 numbers compared to Kerry's.  If Obama's numbers were up less than 5% from Kerry's, the county is in the Minneapolis-St. Paul, Duluth, Mankato, or Austin-Rochester media market.  If a Minnesota county increased for Obama by more than 5% compared to Kerry, the county is in the Grand Forks, Fargo-Moorhead, Sioux Falls, or La Crosse media market.  This holds true with almost every county in the state, and proves just how much of an impact advertising has on voters.

        •  He's polling poorly there (0+ / 0-)

          I don't care what PPP says, at this stage I'm following the money and travel schedule more than polling.

          OFA isn't airing any ads in Montana, nor is anyone else for Obama or against Romney.

          And I'm not sure Obama or Biden has ever visited the state since he was sworn in.  Nor is Montana on anyone's travel schedule now.

          The above things tell me all I need to know about OFA's private polling in Montana...and I do presume they polled the state, after playing hard there 4 years ago and narrowly losing 50-47.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed May 16, 2012 at 06:30:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I Guess It Depends On Whether..... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, The Caped Composer

   Obama advertising presence is determined to help or hurt Jon Tester in Montana.  If anecdotal evidence points to Obama being a drag on Tester, then there's no upside to Obama's advertising presence there.  That seems unlikely though.  With the exception of Meg Whitman in 2010, the evidence points to robust campaign advertising compared to one's opponent as being an unequivocal asset.

          •  I don't think (0+ / 0-)

            PPP refutes your theory.  It had him down 5, but Romney's name rec was considerably lower than Obama's.  I think it's an 8-10 point loss for Obama.  And I think the Dakotas will be in the mid-teens.  Montana is still probably the next domino to fall after MO and AZ, but it would take a landslide.

            •  Probably True About The Margins.... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              ....but to whatever extent Obama's advertising presence boosts Democratic turnout, it assists Democrats in a number of competitive races in all three states.

              When dealing with a campaign that has substantial financial resources, it's a question of return on investment.  Would $2 million worth of advertising have more effect if it paid for a month's worth of ad buys in Montana and the Dakotas or would it be more valuable buying three days worth of saturation ads in Florida?  My bet is on the former.

              •  The election (0+ / 0-)

                Let's not worry about the Montanas and Arizonas quite yet.  There are a lot of others places that we need not locked down yet, Wisc., Va, Pa, Ohio etc.

                •  It Shouldn't Have To Be Either-Or..... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone, The Caped Composer, jncca

                  ...unless Obama's campaign resources are as restricted as John Kerry's were.

                  •  Agree 100 percent. (0+ / 0-)

                    I will speculate on anything and everything, right down to Romney's margin in Wyoming.  That's why we're election geeks.  Leave it to Obama's campaign to be focused.  And they are, basically advertising in firewall states for the most part.

                  •  Nothing was locked down in late Oct 2008 (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike, The Caped Composer

                    The NBC First Read political team's battleground map gave Obama only 264 electoral votes in the safe/likely/leaning columns even on election eve.  They kept as tossups a bunch of normal tossup states that Obama won.  Again, that was at the very end.  And that didn't prevent the campaign from charging hard in Indiana, North Carolina, and Montana.

                    You win by expanding into enemy territory as much as you realistically can, even while defending traditional turf.  There's no "either/or."

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Wed May 16, 2012 at 08:23:48 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  This is why I agree with their strategy (5+ / 0-)

                      Lock down Nevada and New Hampshire early, maybe even Colorado and Pennsylvania then that opens up the possibility of spending in Arizona and maybe even Missouri, Montana, Indiana and Georgia. Win the election first, expand the map later as opportunities allow.

                      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                      by conspiracy on Wed May 16, 2012 at 08:27:18 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

            •  Mitt Romney's been running for president for at (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              savvyspy, askew

              least 6 years.  He has plenty of name rec.

              Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

              by James Allen on Wed May 16, 2012 at 07:35:39 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  He does. (0+ / 0-)

                But not as much as POTUS.  PPP had 9 percent undecided. 4 percent have no opinion on Obama and 12 percent on Romney. I think that could make a difference in how the undecideds will break.  In MT, I think they will go 2-1 Romney and maybe more, padding his lead.

        •  put in some money at least to see it it'll move (0+ / 0-)

          the numbers, if it does, put in a bit more and keep tracking.  At the least it'll scare Romney's people and perhaps help down ticket races.

          Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

          by James Allen on Wed May 16, 2012 at 07:34:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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