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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Jeff Landry finally decides to take on Charles Boustany (132 comments)

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  •  No, there's no such valid evidence (2+ / 0-)
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    sapelcovits, askew

    Gallup is total junk on its party ID polling by state.  Gallup's state-level numbers are filled with outliers.  We know a lot about state-level party ID from exit polls, so many election polls, and voter registration, and Gallup spits out numbers that wildly deviate from the norm.

    The 2010 election results also are junk.  Turnout changes from one election to the next, and wave elections usually are skewed, which is one of the two big reasons (the other being indies breaking mostly one way) waves happen.

    State party ID polls are pretty consistent on NC being heavily Democratic.  But it's also disproportionately conservative compared to the rest of the country, with a lot of center-right white Dems and indies.

    PPP's party ID in NC is about right.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed May 16, 2012 at 11:04:08 AM PDT

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    •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
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      DCCyclone, LordMike

      and Gallup is a pollster. Polls can be wrong. The state BoE registration statistics are official, and they show a 12-point advantage for Ds, only slightly smaller than the 13 or 14 points Dems had in 2008. You can argue there will be less turnout sure, but then it's Gallup (and Rasmussen) vs. the world. I'm not sure why you're so opposed to the idea of Dems having a double digit party ID lead in NC. Pretty sure they have leads in places like W Va and KY too.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Wed May 16, 2012 at 12:42:19 PM PDT

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