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View Diary: Breaking Fox Poll: Obama is Opening up a Can of Wup on Romney (163 comments)

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  •  Bogus poll to scare the base for fundraising (2+ / 0-)
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    Sophie Amrain, carver

    or/and to create a narrative of Romney closing the gap rapidly. Watch in a couple of days or weeks when FOX comes out with a poll where Romney is closing the gap big time.

    I would LOVE to believe that poll, but I'm very suspicious.

    I've become completely cynical about polls. They're all over the place. It's ridiculous. Registered voters or "likely" voters, different models for "likely" voters, some of them very flawed, VERY HIGH percentage of non-response, etc...  A pollster can certainly choose a model that will produce the result wanted.

    As a college teacher who has thought statistics, what's making me nuts is the way the media treat this polls. They just throw the numbers at the audience without any explanation, they compare polls that are NOT compatible because of different methodologies and sampling models ,different ways to treat non-response, etc.. The pundit commentary is simplistic if not downright stupid, and creates BS narratives.

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