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View Diary: All Bets, and Polls, are Off in Wisconsin (211 comments)

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  •  cardinal - I was wondering the same thing (5+ / 0-)

    How would the diary author know how many hangups the polling organization was experiencing and why they would be disproportionate to one side or the other. unless that was data made public by the pollster?

    "let's talk about that"

    by VClib on Thu May 17, 2012 at 12:36:25 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  In most cases, the pollster (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      elwior, VClib, WI Deadhead, Amber6541

      won't even have that data. It's extremely cumbersome to figure out even basic demographic characteristics of the hang-ups, and only a select few academic surveys will bother trying to do so. And even if they do, it takes several leaps of inference to get from their characteristics to their probable vote choice.

      I give a ton of leeway, fact-wise, to partisan motivational diaries, since their task is very different from my task as a scholar/teacher of public opinion and polling. But given that the diarist wielded academic credentials in making the claim, it obviously piqued my curiosity.

      You are reading my signature line. #hashtag

      by cardinal on Thu May 17, 2012 at 12:53:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The diarist is a statistician. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      chicating, 3goldens, Creosote

      "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

      by elwior on Thu May 17, 2012 at 04:54:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  elwior - which makes the comment even (0+ / 0-)

        more surprising. How would the author ever know about hangups or drops, and in what ratio they fell, if he/she were not an employee of the pollster?

        "let's talk about that"

        by VClib on Thu May 17, 2012 at 05:02:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'd suggest you read more carefully and (5+ / 0-)

          make a better attempt to understand the diarist's point of view. I don't feel the need to explain it to you.
              Our old friend Nate Silver is probably the best at this sort of thinking and the ability to incorporate into his methodology.

          "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

          by elwior on Thu May 17, 2012 at 05:32:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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