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View Diary: All Bets, and Polls, are Off in Wisconsin (211 comments)

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  •  Whenever I see a "all polling is meaningless" (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, Draxinum, maryru, cardinal

    ...diary I get concerned. They usually come just as an election is slipping away.

      •  yup and same poll (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elwior, 3goldens, wishingwell

        Has Obama only leading by 1 over Romney however Rasmussen of all posters had Obama leading by 4,just last week.

          I don't know ,I do think this special election is a special circumstance . One other question just what did the Polls show when Arnold beat Gray Davis in CA about 10 years ago?

    •  I do think the diarist makes a valid (10+ / 0-)

      point however, and it's this:  this is only the THIRD recall election EVER of a sitting governor and this recall came about because ordinary, average people rose up in a body and let it be known they would not tolerate a dictator, especially one who LIED his way into office.  In addition. the people of this state got a Republican State Senator recalled and thus neutralized the State Senate.  In addition to that, we collected nearly 1,000,000 valid signatures when only 540,000 were needed to get the recall off the ground.  There's not a lot of data out there about our situation----so I think it's not a stretch to say that for our situation, all polling is meaningless.  NO ONE knows how this is going to finish----but there's a million or more of us who have a pretty good idea on that.  We're not going to be jerked around by pollsters.  We've got too much to do to RECALL WALKER.

      We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both. Louis D. Brandeis

      by 3goldens on Thu May 17, 2012 at 03:46:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're saying polling in Wisconsin is unique (1+ / 0-)
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        ...and therefore that disqualifies any polling. That would also disqualify the entire science of polling.

        A 5 point nominal lead isn't insurmountable --if it even exists-- but to discount the polling that has been done for these slightest of reasons is hardly a convincing argument.

        •  No, I'm not saying what you think I am. (5+ / 0-)

          I'm just trying to point out that getting all involved in "the numbers" may not be a worthwhile occupation because this IS a unique circumstance.  Pollsters gotta poll----I get that.  It's what they do.  And that's fine.  But I don't see any reason for people buying into ANY SiNGLE poll result because of the fact that this IS a unique situation.  You don't seem to me to be recognizing that fact.

          Frankly, I think polls are a waste of time for the most part anyway.  So, put me down as "biased".  I've seen too many comments from people here who are in the DK Elections Group and they appear to be oblivious to anything other than poll numbers and I find some of their comments deeply offensive in that they appear to believe "the numbers" are what it's all about.  Polling can not grasp the "human" factor that influences how people decide who to vote for.  I've had just enough stats training to believe that in many instances polls are nothing but educated guesses.  They're not the be-all and end-all.  We've just spent a couple of days here on DK with people freaking out because of a poll out of Marquette U. by Charles Franklin who is, IMHO, biased.  I've seen too many other instances where people have been swayed by a poll's results.  That's not helpful in my opinion.

          We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both. Louis D. Brandeis

          by 3goldens on Thu May 17, 2012 at 04:12:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Four polls out this week (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            cstark, cardinal, New Rule

            All have Walker with a lead, from 5-9 points.

            Rather than engage in cheerleading exercises which deny the efficacy of polling it would seem to me far more beneficial to work on getting out the vote, recognizing that Barrett faces an uphill fight against big monied interests.

            A sense of urgency is needed for the practical concerns, not unwarranted idealism which doesn't recognize the real fight ahead.

            •  Oh, OK. You're clearly way more tuned in to (10+ / 0-)

              the situation in WI than I am.  About the "sense of urgency"----you must be unaware of the diary by Yosef 52 that raised in excess of $160,000 for Tom Barrett just two or three days ago.  You must also be unaware of the multiple diaries this week that have over and over again asked people to call/e-mail/fax the DNC to get them to give us the $500,000 that was requested of them so that we can GOTV.  There have been a number of diaries this entire week that have been focused on getting people to help GOTV, raise money for Barrett and the Dem. Party of WI, and to beg the DNC to come through with the money needed.  Go check the Badger State Progressive Group  diaries for just this week before you accuse me of "unwarranted idealism" and "cheerleading".  

              We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both. Louis D. Brandeis

              by 3goldens on Thu May 17, 2012 at 04:33:26 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  4 polls? I've seen 2 (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              elwior, cstark, wishingwell

              -- PPP and MU.

              What are the others this week?

              "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

              by Cream City on Thu May 17, 2012 at 06:39:03 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  You give yourself away when you cite (0+ / 0-)

              four polls when there were only 2.
                 You are also saying the same thing over and over, and not just in this diary.
                  Coincidentally, the Republican strategy in this race seems to be the same thing. Try to paint a dismal picture for our side, try to say that "this race is over" somehow, even as they are so worried that they're attempting to plaster the airways, try to skew data, make the governor basically unavailable except for use in commercials, print up enough junk mail to destroy a decent-sized forest, and so on.

                 Speaking to the sleazebags in the GOP, their rabid followers, and sponsors, it ain't gonna work.
                  In the end, Walker is horrible, under criminal investigation, dishonest, and dishonorable.

              "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

              by elwior on Fri May 18, 2012 at 12:09:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  PS Saying that WI polling in this instance (7+ / 0-)

          is unique does not and is not my intent to"disqualify any polling".  And I think you're making a rather quantum leap to state that saying polling in WI in this unique situation is the same as "disqualifying the entire science of polling."  I also think that there's an argument to be made as to whether polling is science -----or an art.  It can be both, it seems to me.   Most statisticians know that one can word polls in a variety of ways and if one is being dishonest, one can "slant" the wording of the questions to get the results one desires.  That can be seen as the "art" of polling.

          We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both. Louis D. Brandeis

          by 3goldens on Thu May 17, 2012 at 04:22:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The emphasis in the diary is not on the polls (8+ / 0-)

      themselves. We here on the ground know what we are doing and what kind of response we are getting. We aren't taking anything for granted. We are going to keep working.

      People need encouragement or some of them will give up.

      Remember, when we started in November, we got off to a good start, but then there was a St. Norbert's poll that said that 68% of Wisconsinites disapproved of the job Walker was doing? (It wasn't likely voters, it was voting aged adults) After that poll, volunteers started popping out of the woodwork.

      There are scary aspects to this thing. We have to encourage one another.

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