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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Republican Rep. Mike Coffman goes full birther—and then some (88 comments)

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  •  I dismiss it just as others (0+ / 0-)

    Only when state polls show movement toward Mitt will I be persuaded.

    Wisconsin is the only one showing that, but of course is part of recall polling and so far is alone in having a shift.  So that still can be treated as isolated.

    If the election were today, Obama still wins big.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:38:11 AM PDT

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    •  Strange that he seems to be polling way under (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      savvyspy

      His approval rating all of a sudden. Very odd.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:40:43 AM PDT

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      •  Politico's Alexander Burns tweeted... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dirk McQuigley, ArkDem14, Skaje

        ...this week in response to the CBS/NYT and Fox polls that
        no one in media on the Presidential beat believes Obama in reality is at 43 or Mitt at 39--both are higher.

        I think that's right.

        The national polling has been so volatile recently that I've lost my faith in almost all of it.

        I care only about states.

        And, after all, states are all that really matter.

        Last night's Steve Singiser polling diary had some excellent comments by khyber, Steve Singiser, and fladem where they discussed the state polling having been more predictive of the outcome than national polling in the previous several Presidentials.  Steve, for his part, runs his own model extrapoling "national" numbers from state polls.  I highly recommend reading those comments.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 05:55:13 AM PDT

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        •  Been there done that (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, Skaje, DCCyclone

          I also believe the president has strength in swing states that doesn't show in national polls. Clear in the fact he doesn't need VA, OH, NC or FL to actually win.

          That being said, my current national average is 47-44 but a chunk of that is based on data going back a bit now. I suspect it'll tighten when fresh numbers emerge.

          However, I've done it this way since 2004 and it seems to compensate for wild swings over a short period of time. It was 46-44 for months before stretching to 48-43 as Santorum quit the race.

          I'll be frank, I'm more anxious about the lack of urgency on this continent than I am about the polling situation in the United States and the impact on the same.

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:09:33 AM PDT

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        •  The media should also only care about states (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, ljb, bear83

          Because the Electoral College really selects the President, the only purpose of useless national polling is to create the illusion of horse race. Wasn't McCain close or ahead in some national polls even after his campaign tanked w/ the suspension stunt and the fundamentals comment? But the media has a vested interest in fooling us. It also allows them to massively profit by charging higher rates to Crossroads and the rest of the Citizens United largesse permeating the public's airwaves.

          •  Yeah (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, James Allen, bear83

            McCain always looked closer than the electoral college suggested. Obama never took a commanding national lead until the Lehman collapse.

            "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

            by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:13:17 AM PDT

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          •  It's all about money (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            Specifically, it's that polling is expensive, and paying for national polls is a lot cheaper than paying for a dozen or more state polls with the same monthly or bimonthly frequency.  Even in the fall, the major media organizations might pay for 3-5 states at a time for polling, expecting other organizations to poll other states so that everything gets covered somehow.  This far out, no one wants to pay for state polls except very occasionally.  This is what allows PPP and Rasmussen to dominate that market, with Quinnipiac apparently having enough money to poll frequently in a handful of the most important swing states plus some of its geographically proximate blue states.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:34:07 AM PDT

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