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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Republican Rep. Mike Coffman goes full birther—and then some (88 comments)

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  •  Ah (0+ / 0-)

    62 not 63. Faulty memory!

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 06:59:52 AM PDT

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    •  Exactly, Obama won the state by 24 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      points in 2008. At this point, even the last Rasmussen poll had him up 22 points, 57-35, with 8 percent undecided. Split the undecideds 50/50, and it's 61-39, not accounting for Rasmussen's consistent slant, especially early on due to their likely voter models, and the fact they've been even worse and more inconsistent this year.

      The California theory sounds nice, but there's no correspondence in polling to suggest it. In fact the utterly dismal state of the California party and the demographic trends of the state instantly suggest it's extremely improbable that Romney will get over 40% of the vote in the state unless he is winning 51% of the national vote and the election.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:08:41 AM PDT

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      •  yup (3+ / 0-)
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        bear83, DCCyclone, ArkDem14

        Calfornia is one state that's almost certain to keep getting bluer.  Every election it just keeps getting more Democratic than the country at large.

        We keep looking for some big state that will explain Obama's sagging national numbers, and there aren't any.  Obama continues to poll about where he was in 2008 in all the large states.  So I've simply come to the conclusion that one set of polls is simply off, or perhaps both are.

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