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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Republican Rep. Mike Coffman goes full birther—and then some (88 comments)

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  •  Romney's first ad for the GE (0+ / 0-)

    Set to run in IA, NC, OH and VA

    http://www.youtube.com/...!

    I think it starts running today.

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:01:16 AM PDT

    •  Not taking advice from Stu Rothenberg then! (0+ / 0-)

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:02:47 AM PDT

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      •  What was Rothenburg's advice? (0+ / 0-)

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:10:45 AM PDT

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        •  I thought this was a meme now (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, sapelcovits

          Or is it just me?

          "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

          by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:15:14 AM PDT

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          •  you'll have to refresh our memory... n/t (0+ / 0-)
            •  North Carolina isn't a swing state (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje, James Allen, sapelcovits

              "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

              by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 07:56:54 AM PDT

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              •  Haha there we go (0+ / 0-)

                when I hear it phrased like that it comes back.

                I wonder at what point Rothenberg will "revise" his assertion about North Carolina.  Perhaps right before the election?

              •  Charlie Cook writes the same today...... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, sapelcovits

                Here's the link:  http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

                Cook writes, without explanation, he's increasingly skeptical Obama can win NC.

                It's clear from the actions of the Obama and Romney campaigns that it's a pure tossup.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:27:25 AM PDT

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                •  But here's a CNN story that's more credible... (0+ / 0-)

                  ...in suggesting Obama is less likely to win NC this time than last time:  http://www.cnn.com/...

                  There's a lot of junk in the story.  Commentary about the tough economy and the shine wearing off is all junk to me.

                  The one credible point in the story is this:

                  The president's path to victory becomes even narrower if Republican turnout grows from the dismal 31% showing of 2008 -- a certainty according to political operatives in Raleigh who watched in 2010 as a fired-up GOP captured both houses of the state Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.
                  That's something I won't dismiss, that GOP vote share might be higher.

                  There also are citations to the vote share and Obama performance with young voters, but that stuff relies on exit polls.  The media treats exit polls as being fully trustworthy, but they're not.  They are polls with margins of error and confidence intervals like all polls, and they have flaws unique to exit polls that you don't see at all with telephone surveys.

                  Indeed, the comment about Republicans constituting 31% of 2008 NC voters also relied on exit polls.

                  And NC is Example 1 of the flaws of exit polls.  In 2004, the exit poll said 26% of voters were black.  This in a state whose population was only 20% black, and where neither candidate campaigned at all, and nothing about John Kerry would've inspired black people to single themselves out to show up in massive droves.  Fortunately, NC provides turnout data by race as an unrequired corollory to otherwise required Voting Rights Act recordkeeping, and we know that the exact black vote share in 2004 was 19.6%...a massive 6.4% lower than the badly flawed exit poll.

                  This linked CNN story relies on even more dubious exit poll data re young voters, with the exit poll having said Obama won NC youth 74-26 but nationally only 66%.  Frankly that's not enough of a difference to treat reliably as a real difference, given margins of error, confidence intervals, and the inherent flaws of exit polling.

                  But then there was this much more credible tidbit from the CNN story:

                  One senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity because of involvement in multiple statewide and legislative campaigns, said private polling in a variety of state races shows that white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.

                  "The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters," the Democrat said. "If he doesn't, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics."

                  The Democrat predicted a "bloodbath" for the party in November if those numbers fail to tighten.

                  Holding the convention in Charlotte, this person said, might make for an exciting week but will do little to push the state in Obama's direction: "I'm glad that it's here for sheer state pride, but is it going to make much difference at Wilber's Barbecue in Goldsboro?"

                  That is probably the most credible thing in the story to  potentially dispirit us on NC.

                  But Obama and Romney are spending big in NC, and that means for now it really is a tossup and should be treated as such until the situation changes.

                  On the flip side, the CNN story goes on to discuss OFA's amazing voter registration and other field performance in the state as something that can matter.  Of course, field always matters only on the margins, helping us get over the top only if other factors keep the state in the tossup column in the first place.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:52:32 AM PDT

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                  •  By the way, error in my comment above (0+ / 0-)

                    I didn't proofread well and realize I was wrong to call my first blockquote the "one" credible thing in the CNN story.  It wasn't the only one, and it actually wasn't the most credible point...the second blockquote was a bigger deal to me.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:54:29 AM PDT

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                    •  Very interesting (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      DCCyclone

                      To see the number of articles insisting he can't win there when the polling and both campaigns say otherwise. Particularly the Romney campaign. Almost makes me think there is an agenda there. A lot of disconnect right now on a number of fronts.

                      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

                      by conspiracy on Fri May 18, 2012 at 10:47:21 AM PDT

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                      •  I think if there's a way to reconcile, it is... (0+ / 0-)

                        ...that everyone acknowledges current polling establishes a tossup, but there are good reasons to think that won't hold because certain demographics (young whites and maybe middle-aged white swing voters) that Obama needs are not going to show up in sufficient numbers or give him the margins he needs, and also because the turnout model likely will end up including higher GOP vote share than last time.

                        Those are plausible arguments.

                        But they still amount to speculation, not a current reality.

                        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Fri May 18, 2012 at 11:22:54 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

          •  Don't worry (0+ / 0-)

            I got it ;)

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Fri May 18, 2012 at 08:56:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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