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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/18 (231 comments)

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  •  blue aardvark is prob referring to... (6+ / 0-)

    The voter registration stats in CO-06, in which the GOP may still have a slight edge. However, you still have a valid point in noting the 54% Obama figure. Considering Obama's healthy lead statewide, it's likely he'll win this district comfortably again.

    However, there may still be a challenge in getting folks to vote for Miklosi along with Obama. He needs to persuade Indy's to vote for him AND Obama, and he needs to make sure all the Dems keep going all the way down the ballot.

    •  yeah, areas that are trending Democratic (11+ / 0-)

      usually go from the top down.  That is to say, they start voting Democratic at the top, but further down the ballot it takes longer.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Fri May 18, 2012 at 09:02:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My district (NV-03) is the same way... (8+ / 0-)

        And so is a growing chunk of my "homeland" (Orange County, CA... & parts of CA-45 & CA-48 in particular). The West Coast version of "Rockefeller Republicans" (Schwarzenegger-Smith-Guinn Republicans?) are increasingly being squeezed out of the radicalized G-O-TEA, so they're desperately seeking a new political home. They're increasingly willing to vote Democratic at the top of the ticket (Obama in 2008, Harry Reid in Nevada in 2010, Bennet & Hickenlooper in Colorado in 2010), but it will take more work to get them to vote for more Dems down the ballot. In many areas, it's still a work in progress. But as I've said here before, I'm increasingly bullish on seats like NV-03, CO-06, CA-26, & WA-01 (latter 2 depending on primary results) because the demographic trends are finally starting to bear fruit.

    •  2010 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      This district slipped to 47% Democratic performance and we did pretty terrible down ballot.  I think Bennet may have won the new district, so that bodes well.  

      I wish we had a better candidate, Miklosi's performance has been underwhelming and with Coffman raising so much $ and being primed for senate in 2014 I still don't see him pulling it off.

      •  Bennet almost certainly won it (5+ / 0-)

        The district is more Democratic than the state, and Bennet didn't seem to have any marked over or under performance in any areas.  A pretty even swing actually compared to Obama's numbers (9% victory compared to 1.5%).

        Looks like Governor Hickenlooper also would have topped 50% in the district.

        Anyway, I wouldn't worry too much about Coffman's money, Miklosi will have more than enough to be competitive.  It will come down to how good he is as a candidate, and and how the national mood swings.

        •  What are Bennet's strengths and weaknesses (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          and just how DID he pull off that unexpected win?

          •  I'm not really sure (5+ / 0-)

            Bennet was kind of a blank slate to a lot of people upon being appointed to the Senate.  He was previously the superintendent of Denver public schools, and before that, the chief of staff to the Denver mayor.  He had never won an election before, or even ran for anything.

            He did show some strength when he easily turned aside a primary challenge after being appointed, but I think what really made this race was crazyman Ken Buck winning the GOP nomination over former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton.

            Buck campaigned like the next coming of Tom Tancredo and thus he scared away crucial voters in the Denver suburbs (areas that George Bush had managed to win).  That pretty much sealed Buck's fate.  Just not enough votes elsewhere to come back from that.

            So while Buck was certainly a terrible candidate, I think there is something to be said about Colorado slowly drifting to the left.

            •  That IMHO is a big part of Bennet's win. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              All of a sudden, "Milquetoast Mike" was looking awfully attractive compared to "King Ken of Batsh*t Crazy". Also from what I understand, Colorado Dems had kept intact the strong ground game that turned the state Blue in 2008... Including a solid OFA presence.

              Really, we saw the seeds of Obama's reelection campaign planted in 2010... If we knew where to look. They must have figured that parts of "The Rust Belt" would be trouble spots by now, so they ensured Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada held up well enough to form "The Western Firewall" that would make Mitt Romney's Road to 270 incredibly more difficult.

        •  unfortunately that's incorrect (5+ / 0-)

          Buried in this Denver Post editorial about the new maps is this:

          According to data provided by state Democrats, this new district population has variously voted for Democrats Barack Obama for president, Mark Udall for senator and John Hickenlooper for governor and Republicans Ken Buck for Senate, John Suthers for attorney general and Walker Stapleton for treasurer.
          However, I do agree that Hickenlooper probably topped 50% here in 2010 since he did very well in the Denver metro area.

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