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View Diary: The Most Important Election in 2012 is in Wisconsin (160 comments)

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  •  City of Milwaukee (13+ / 0-)

    (At least the parts in Milwaukee County) was D by 90,546 in 2010 but D by 155,780 in 2008.

    So with a D showing identical to 2008 in just the City of Milwaukee, that's 65,234 of Walker's 124,638 margin eaten.

    Turn out all the petition signers in Dane County who didn't vote for Barrett in 2010 and Walker starts needing extra votes from somewhere.

    Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

    by GeoffT on Fri May 25, 2012 at 12:45:43 PM PDT

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    •  ^^^^^^most promising comment about early (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pdx kirk, Cream City, Puddytat

      registration I have read yet!

    •  Geoff, please keep crunching (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GeoffT, Puddytat

      those numbers  for us.  I've read lots of analyses about the need for turnout in my Milwaukee (all of the city is in Milwaukee County, btw), but not so starkly as you state it here.

      And here's a difference in other parts of the state that we may see:  WEAC, the state teachers union (except for teachers in the city of Milwaukee schools), refused to endorse Barrett in 2010.  That really hurt turnout, from what I heard from a lot of those teachers whom I know.

      WEAC still mixed it up in the primary this year, or at least its leaders did again -- but the members took charge, at last, and endorsed Barrett (i.e., the Dem who won).  And the teachers will turn out this time, all across the state.

      That includes, of course, more than 2000 teachers laid off in the state this year, owing to Walker's budget cuts.  

      And their familyi members. . . .

      "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

      by Cream City on Fri May 25, 2012 at 03:34:27 PM PDT

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      •  How about this? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cpresley, la urracca, Puddytat

        http://www.beloitdailynews.com/...

        “Some clerks have told us that voting so far is at near-presidential election levels,” [Rock County Clerk Lori Stottler] said
        Rock County went for Barrett by 7 points in 2010, being D+13 compared to the state as a whole; the gap in the primary turnout was 21 points for D's+Kohl-Riggs vs Walker+Huber, which was D+17 compared to the state as a whole.

        Again, early voting turnout != election turnout and this is more an anecdote than data, but it's an encouraging sign.  I really need to find some absentee reports for red counties...

        Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

        by GeoffT on Fri May 25, 2012 at 04:55:37 PM PDT

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        •  Rock County has been hurting so bad (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          cpresley, GeoffT, la urracca, Puddytat

          since the GM closings.  This is the home of Janesville of the recent film that turned up the video of Walker's "divide and conquer" quote, which must be especially embittering there -- where the fight is ferocious as also the home of the horrible flier attacking Janesville teachers this week.

          I hope for good turnout there, but I also would bet, from what the video tells us as well as from people I know there, that there has been a decline in population there.

          "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

          by Cream City on Fri May 25, 2012 at 05:23:30 PM PDT

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      •  La Crosse County (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Puddytat

        http://lacrossetribune.com/...

        A 60% turnout is predicted, which would be ~54,000 votes. 2010 turnout was 41,820 (~46%), Walker just edging it 20,754 to 20,639.  2008 turnout was ~70%, Obama taking the upper hand 38,524 to 23,701 (D+23).

        The largest number of votes for any Republican in La Crosse County was 28,289 for Bush in 2004.

        In the recall primary, the number of votes for D's+Kohl-Riggs vs Walker+Huber were D+25 (!) compared to the state as a whole.  The Dem base in La Crosse is clearly very much more engaged than the Republican base.  It therefore seems highly unlikely that Walker would do any better than McCain here, and therefore at a 60% turnout La Crosse could be going somewhere north of ~ D+16 vs 2010.

        Statewide, D+6 and Walker loses.

        Not seeing much reporting about red counties - which could be a sign in itself - but the thing is, counties like Waukesha simply don't have much room to grow turnout with.

        Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

        by GeoffT on Fri May 25, 2012 at 06:36:46 PM PDT

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        •  We need to get our voters out to the polls (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Cream City

          Every single voter counts.  I'm encouraged by the early voting numbers and predictions of high turnout.  Walker got elected in a low turnout election (2010).

          There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

          by Puddytat on Fri May 25, 2012 at 09:09:58 PM PDT

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        •  Thanks, again. Yes, re Waukesha County (0+ / 0-)

          where Kathy Nicklaus consistently (and long before the recent exposes, at last) reported voter participation rates like 96 percent! in its largest city, that would suggest little room for maneuvering . . . unless you're Kathy Nicklaus.:-)

          Re La Crosse, I emailed this week with a former coworker now there, and the good folks of that lovely city are working hard for the recall, she reports.  That's good to hear, as La Crosse has been an important third patch of blue on our map, in addition to Milwaukee and Madison.  
          (That goes back for some time now, as I well remember good reporting a dozen years ago on Gore's focus on both banks of our Third Coast in the Upper Mississippi area, which has done well for Dems then and since.)

          "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

          by Cream City on Sat May 26, 2012 at 08:07:19 PM PDT

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