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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Texas primary preview (107 comments)

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  •  Scare tactics (0+ / 0-)

    At the Congressional level CD-27 looks like this:
    2010 Dem 33% GOP 64%
    2008 Dem 47% GOP 51%
    2006 Dem 53% GOP 45%
    2004 Dem 53% GOP 46%

    2010 was an epic disaster, but this district is more than winnable. Farenthold is tolerated, but not loved by the GOP. Mitt Romney may turn into a disaster at the Presidential level. And if we elect Rose in the primary she can tap into the Emily's List elect women money that can make this a competitive race. Good luck with McDonald or Trevino getting anyone to care enough to make this competitive.

    Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com. Get your We are the 99% Yard Sign.

    by DemSign on Tue May 29, 2012 at 02:28:18 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Where are you getting those numbers from? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      loblolly

      In 2008 McCain won TX-27 59%-40%.  Do legislative Democratic candidates frequently run well here?  

      22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

      by Jeff Singer on Tue May 29, 2012 at 02:36:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Those numbers mean nothing. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701

        Those Dem-favorable numbers were largely because Solomon Ortiz was facing uncontested races and consistently won by 20-30%, so these way overstate Democratic strength.  Also, at least some of the district came from Lloyd Doggett's, and I think he got 60% in 06 and 08.

        •  Ortiz never ran uncontested (0+ / 0-)

          And those numbers do mean something. They show the realm of the possible. 53% is possible, but it will take one hell of a perfect storm to reach that. I am realistic enough to know that 53% isn't likely, but unlikely is no reason to give up.

          The district contains parts of Ron Paul's CD-14 (Aransas, blue Calhoun, Jackson, Lavaca, blue Matagorda, Victoria, & Wharton), Ruben Hinojosa's CD-15 (blue Refugio), the purply parts of Lloyd Doggett's CD-25 (Bastrop, Caldwell, and Gonzales), and Ortiz's CD-27 (purple Nueces and red San Patricio).

          I am hopeful enough to know that if the Hispanics show up to vote then the Dem candidate will win this seat. I am realistic enough to know that Apathy is their favorite candidate.

          Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com. Get your We are the 99% Yard Sign.

          by DemSign on Tue May 29, 2012 at 03:40:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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