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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Scott Walker's new negative ad does not suggest confidence (100 comments)

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  •  I wouldn't overread into Walker's ad/polling (10+ / 0-)

    First, one thing I really don't like is when people try to read something into nondisclosure of private polling.  No campaign wants to release private polling!  They do so very seldom, and only under limited circumstances when they think a potential fundraising gain or media spin outweighs the risks of disclosing confidential data.  In Walker's case, every public poll and even disclosed Dem private polling all show Walker winning, the spin says he's got it, and he's raised all the money he needs.  So he has no reason to disclose anything.

    Second, you don't just run a negative ad when you're in trouble, you run it even if you're winning but it's still close.  It makes no more sense to read "trouble for Walker" into Walker's attack ad than it does to read "trouble for Obama" into his attack ads against Romney.  Like Obama, Walker appears to be winning, but just not in a blowout, so you still want to hit your opponent however you can.

    The one thing that makes me hang on to hope in this is the apparent higher-than-expected turnout.  There's a chance that will prove the turnout models wrong.  Of course, we thought the same in the MA-Sen special election in 2010, when turnout was at a midterm general level, and yet the polls were right and Brown still won because ultimately there were too many Brown indies and defecting Dems no matter the turnout.  The same is possible here, we all expect the Circle of Ignorance to show up strong, no way to know how it  really breaks down statewide until they start counting them.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:38:07 AM PDT

    •  Excellent points. n/t (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, tietack, R30A

      20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

      by aggou on Wed May 30, 2012 at 05:51:41 AM PDT

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    •  Though Coakley did close at little (4+ / 0-)

      The average for the final polls was 51-43 when he ended up winning 52-47.

      Now, in Wisconsin it could be higher Republican turnout given the likely voter projections but that doesn't seem to jibe with strong early voting in heavily Democratic areas.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:03:31 AM PDT

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      •  Well, you know what that reminds me of? (5+ / 0-)

        In Kathy Hochul's special election win over Jane Corwin in update New York, there were reports during the day that the Republicans were very happy with high turnout in rural areas.

        But when the votes in those rural counties were counted, Hochul simply overperformed in them compared to a normal Democrat.  It turned out that the "high" turnout was thanks to anti-Republican voters, indies and Dems, turning out at higher rates than GOP voters.  This, even though these were strong Republican rural counties.  So when the

        Yes, that's unusual, usually high turnout in a strongly partisan area indicates high turnout by the party that dominates that area.  So if there's strong turnout in Dane and Milwaukee, yeah, that probably benefits Barrett.  But we can't be sure, there are surprises sometimes.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed May 30, 2012 at 06:31:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's not conventional campaign wisdom (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      (which I realize is changing). Otherwise, Ron Barber wouldn't be releasing positive ads at this point, diary ref

      Finally, Barber has a new positive spot out, mostly touting newspaper endorsements which praise him for being bipartisan.

      Alternatively, Barber is the one who is up by > 10, in which case, I'd suppose the positive ad would make sense to both of us.

      The other explanation for Walker's negative ads (and the non-release of Barrett internals by Yang's firm yesterday) is that (shhhhhh) Barrett is taking the lead (shhhhhhh), both sides know, and that Barrett doesn't want the internals released any more because he wants everyone to focus on GOTV.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:09:02 AM PDT

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    •  Turnout projections are very favorable for us (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      Turnout in 2010 was 49%, and it was unusually high among Republicans. The GAB is projecting turnout of 60-65% (compared with 69% in 2008). If those numbers are borne out that means the people who showed up in 2008 but not 2010 are showing up, and most of those were Democrats.

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