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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Scott Walker's new negative ad does not suggest confidence (100 comments)

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  •  Rumors are good (1+ / 0-)
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    But data is better.

    I figured the best metric was the faction of Obama votes that Coakley received, since total turnout doesn't account that some places just have lower turnout, even in presidential years.

    Here's the data for all 351 cities and towns:

    As you can see, Boston is 151 out of 351, so not great, but not terrible.  Typical of the state as a whole.  

    The worst towns, by this metric, are depressed former industrial towns like Southbridge and Lawrence.  Well off liberal suburbs and small towns in the hill country of Western Mass did best.

    29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

    by Marcus Graly on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:46:40 AM PDT

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    •  Thanks (0+ / 0-)

      But the point still stands, poor turnout in Democratic towns hurt but likely wasn't determinative.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:52:50 AM PDT

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      •  Hard to say (0+ / 0-)

        Another interesting chart, which I'm not going to make right now, is comparing the gubernatorial election in November with the Senate election in January.  Total turnout was almost exactly the same, but turnout was down considerably in the conservative suburbs and up in the cities.  This seems to support the thesis that differential turnout may have been at least partially responsible for the different outcomes, though I would need to do more through analysis to be certain.  (There was also a much larger third wheel in the gov race, for instance.)

        29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        by Marcus Graly on Wed May 30, 2012 at 07:58:28 AM PDT

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      •  Let's double our votes to oust Walker-this way (0+ / 0-)

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