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View Diary: The State of Oregon's 2012 Races (85 comments)

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  •  I don't think Bonamici would've liked that 1st (4+ / 0-)

    district, or Schrader that 5th district, and I don't know about the 4th.  I can't see NW Portland but I know Blumenauer wanted the Pearl and he was pretty adamant about it.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Thu May 31, 2012 at 04:43:29 PM PDT

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    •  I wasn't really caring about what (0+ / 0-)

      the various incumbents would have liked. That 1st is similar, partisan wise, to the current one made in the last round. Blumenauer gets all of Multnomah save for a slice in the southwest corner.

      Schrader gets a 5th several points bluer, but still very favorable to him geographically. And the 4th remains the same, with the upshot that Bend is growing and becoming bluer. It probably becomes 1-2 points more Democratic. On the bottom line, this provides Democrats with the 4 solidest districts without really going overboard and dicing up Portland and really pissing off Blumenauer and Schrader and possibly Bonamici.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu May 31, 2012 at 05:11:22 PM PDT

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      •  problem is that (4+ / 0-)

        they were lobbying the Dem legislators heavily, and Schrader and Blumenauer in particular were very influential in how it turned out.  I think ideally Schrader would rather have more of Clackamas County in the Clackamas and also some of outer SE Portland around the Mount Scott area instead of having so much of SW Portland.  The areas he'd rather have are poorer, though still have around Mt Scott some rich Democrats, but more moderate perhaps than the ones in SW Portland.  Why?  These areas still lean Democratic, though not as much, but are trending more Democratic.  A lack of rich liberals and a bigger liberal base from losing SW Portland means less chance of a serious primary from the left.  Also, give him the east edge of Clackamas County, maybe even Sandy.  I think he (or maybe I'm confusing him with Bob Shiprack, who was a Dem in the state legislature in the same area before Schrader) represented Sandy in the state house, and the Mount Hood Villages and precinct 363 in the far SE are pretty Democratic, but low in population, so they give a little boost without having much of a base to field a challenger either.  All of that strengthens his base in Clackamas County versus a challenger from another part of the district.

        If I'm Bonamici I probably want a district a lot like she's got, with her base in Beaverton and NW Portland and unincorporated Multnomah, plus the ancestral Dems in Columbia and progressives in Clatsop, and slightly Dem-trending Yamhill.  Not a bad district.

        If I'm Blumenauer I want more of the rich liberals that Schrader doesn't want.  They love Earl, they won't give him a challenger, and he can raise money from them to help him cozy up with Pelosi and other leadership more.

        If I'm DeFazio, I might not like Josephine or Douglas County, but at least in Josephine I have the most Democratic parts of the county.  I just stare at that huge Douglas County region and can't stand it.  But if I lose some of them, and Schrader wantss to keep the rest of his territory around Lincoln and Polk, where can I get people if I want to lose some?  Well, if I reach over into Jackson County, in the south of the county there's a huge base of solid Democrats who would love to finally be represented by a Democrat for the first time in decades.  That means that I can't drop my territory in Josephine County, though.  Douglas is the most likely candidate left, being the reddest county in the district, and big enough to trade.  So I pick up southern Jackson including Talent and Ashland, and the rest of Josephine County, mainly being Grants Pass, and drop most of Douglas County aside from the coastal area (which is the most Democratic part of the county) which will act as a link between the southern and northern ends of my district.  So, I'm trading most of Douglas County, which is like R+15, for some very red territory and some very blue territory, which probably isn't worse than R+3 altogether, and could be even.  This would make me completely safe for now, and make the district much safer for whoever runs when I leave.

        Hood River, Wasco, and Warm Springs are very tempting to put into OR-03 or OR-05, but I don't know if either Blumenauer or Schrader would want them, especially since Schrader would still have a swing district and he may face a challenge from Walden, who lives in Hood River.  If I'm god I put them into a Democratic district, but in reality I have to deal with powerful congressmembers who have a lot of influence.

        Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

        by James Allen on Thu May 31, 2012 at 05:36:20 PM PDT

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        •  It's okay (4+ / 0-)

          If Oregon adds a congressional district in 2022, I can't imagine Hood River County stays in OR-02.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Thu May 31, 2012 at 10:02:06 PM PDT

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        •  Umm, do you guys know that Bonamici (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, SaoMagnifico, ArkDem14

          was co-chair of the Legislature's redistricting committee? She engineered the state's first redistricting by the legislature in ghod knows how long (been decided in the courts for ages).  She pushed her bipartisan cred fairly hard in the debates with Cornilles, though she was a lot more aware of how 'bipartisan' has worked in the U.S. House vs. the Oregon Legislature than you might guess.

          And the trade with Blumenauer was essentially the canyon that U.S. 26 runs through past the Oregon Zoo out of downtown Portland (read $$$ mansions) for the Columbia River coast up through Scappoose/Rainier.  That worked in her favor, as she's been representing that area for quite some time, both in the OR Senate and House.

          They didn't expect a 54-40 win, but I didn't see any of her top level campaign staff look terribly worried (I was a 5-day a week volunteer, not 'on' her staff).

          BTW, with few exceptions, her staff was all women, highly competent ones, too.

          Conservatism is a function of age - Rousseau
          I've been 19 longer'n you've been alive - me

          by watercarrier4diogenes on Thu May 31, 2012 at 10:14:46 PM PDT

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      •  While the 1st is similar in total content, (0+ / 0-)

        your version gives Blumenauer pretty much all of Bonamici's State Senate district.  Would have made her run against Avakian much harder, much less working against Cornilles.  Since she was co-chair of the redistricting committee and had already decided (and I think, announced) that she'd run against Wu in 2012 (prior to his resignation), that just wouldn't have happened.

        Conservatism is a function of age - Rousseau
        I've been 19 longer'n you've been alive - me

        by watercarrier4diogenes on Thu May 31, 2012 at 10:41:45 PM PDT

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        •  Not true, all of Beaverton (0+ / 0-)

          and the vast majority of Washington county's population is in this district.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu May 31, 2012 at 11:41:17 PM PDT

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        •  Hmm....that doesn't look right (0+ / 0-)

          I live in what was Bonamici's state senate district. There was only a tiny portion of her district in MultCo. The rest was in WaCo.

          Online Community Builder, Compassion & Choices--Editor, Blue Oregon

          by Carla on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 02:27:46 PM PDT

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