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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Joe Walsh: Dems want minorities 'to be dependent on government' (167 comments)

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  •  I'm thinking polls will significantly change (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    in favor of Romney this month.  Only silver lining is that it is still early enough for a turnaround, although I see little evidence of why that would happen at the moment.

    •  We'll see (2+ / 0-)
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      DCCyclone, askew

      It's not good.  But there's a tendency to overreact.  And it does set the bar low, so a 150,000 plus number in the next month or two may have a more positive impact than it would otherwise.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:40:27 AM PDT

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    •  I'm not granting that until it actually happens (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, atdnext, Aquarius40, sulthernao

      Voters are weird, it's hard to know how they'll translate this bad news into voting considerations.  They don't really like Romney and don't believe he'll do anything in particular to make it better.  But yeah, they just as easily could think "he won't be any worse, either," and take a flyer on him.  Obama's numbers, especially in trial heats, were surprisingly resilient last year, even when bad not as bad as one might expect.  So I won't be surprised by either Obama dipping or by the polls holding steady, either is plausible.

      State polling the next month-plus is what to watch.  I feel like the state polls up to now are already obsolete as of this morning, except to serve as a baseline to compare against.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:43:14 AM PDT

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      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        But you have Democrats sabotaging the president's only avenue to tear Romney down.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:47:54 AM PDT

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        •  No we don't (6+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, Paleo, Skaje, atdnext, Aquarius40, sulthernao

          Cory Booker and these other hand-wringers are trivial and inconsequential.  Voters are paying zero attention to them.  Only people who follow politics professionally or as a hobby know what Cory Booker said.

          Don't confuse campaign chatter in the media and on blogs with what most voters, including swing voters, are actually seeing and hearing.  They're seeing and hearing TV ads and newspaper headlines and whatever is on local and broadcast evening news, and online on major general purpose news sites--not Politico or any other political sites or political blogs.  I wouldn't be surprised if whatever is highlighted on the Yahoo news home page for a day gets more page views than Politico over a month or maybe much longer.

          Obama's messaging has no real obstacles at all, just imagined ones by a few people who harbor imaginary storylines.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:55:38 AM PDT

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          •  Bill Clinton is off message too (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, Mark27, auapplemac

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:59:04 AM PDT

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            •  He's much worse than when he was President (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera, atdnext, Aquarius40

              Bill was gaffe-tastic in the 2008 cycle and sometimes a bad surrogate for his own wife.

              And he's gone off message again a few times this cycle.

              I don't remember Bill doing this so much in his own campaigns.  Maybe he did and my memory fails me a couple decades removed.  I do remember he didn't respond well in '92 to the early hits on his (then merely "alleged") adultery, but that's not nearly the same as a gratuitous unforced error.

              But you know what?...even Bill Clinton's gaffe now doesn't really matter.  It's a one-day story that doesn't penetrate much, and gets drowned out by so much else.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:15:15 AM PDT

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            •  Seems Like He Often Is When "Helping" Obama (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew
              •  He hurt Hillary just as often (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                NMLib, happymisanthropy

                He's not doing this on purpose, he just messes up sometimes.

                Interviews can be deadly, more for a surrogate than a candidate or campaign team, because by nature you're talking spontaneously, and a surrogate isn't self-conditioned to always watch his/her choice of words.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 06:54:19 AM PDT

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          •  The ads that the Rs will use with these people's (0+ / 0-)

            quotes could be devastating. Especially the fact that they are AFs.

            Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive. And... It’s the Supreme Court, stupid!

            by auapplemac on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:38:33 AM PDT

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      •  Yes (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, atdnext, auapplemac

        Most voters, obviously, will vote for their candidate regardless of economic reports.  The "swing" voters could be doing well economically, or not.  So the numbers may not affect their vote as much as thought.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 05:48:21 AM PDT

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      •  DCCyclone, according to poll out yesterday (0+ / 0-)

        Romney's favorables are starting to climb.

        He's just getting real national exposure now. The presentation with his wife and the references to her many health problems along with her sunny personality can humanize him greatly - something he's desperately needed.

        The primary glitches are behind him and many people don't even know about them.

        We'll see....

        Progressives will win only when we convince a majority that they, too, are Progressive. And... It’s the Supreme Court, stupid!

        by auapplemac on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 07:36:47 AM PDT

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        •  I don't swallow whole any one poll (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          I trust trends established in multiple polls, rarely or never just one poll.

          Romney has recovered somewhat from his lowest low, but he's still underwater in most polling.

          The only "good" favorable he's had was in a very bad outlier in ABC/WaPo.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Jun 01, 2012 at 08:35:47 AM PDT

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