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View Diary: Scott Walker and Tom Barrett get feisty in final Wisconsin recall debate (53 comments)

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  •  Intrade is just "Conventional Wisdom," not magic (0+ / 0-)

    knowledge of the future.

    Conventional wisdom can be wrong.

    •  Intrade is people putting their $ on the line, (0+ / 0-)

      but these bets can change over time. They're gamblers, they can be wrong, they can change their minds, and other gamblers can come and bet against them. (When they're wrong, it's good news for those who bet the odds against them.)

      The historical record of Intrade betters at predicting electoral outcomes is pretty good, at least in presidential elections by state, especially the closer it gets to the election. But these markets are clearly not deterministic!

      However, without meaning to rain on anyone's hopes, it will take a miracle for Barret to upset Walker on Tuesday.

      Walker's surge the past month is depressing. Clearly it was fueled by outside money. What did they do with this money, to pull ahead? What happened between May 14-16, when Walker jumped from 65% to 85% on Intrade?

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