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View Diary: Republican Rep. Thad McCotter abandons write-in campaign in Michigan's 11th District (73 comments)

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  •  I don't think it's in play as much as we'd like. (6+ / 0-)

    The redrawn MI-11 is still pretty red, full of white-flight suburbanites.  The best chance was to split that vote, which now probably won't happen.  But I'll be happy to be proven wrong, and I know my family back in MI will work hard towards it, just like they did against McCotter himself.

    •  the fact that Republicans now have to defend (5+ / 0-)

      this seat and can't take it for granted helps. It's now in play...until it's not. We'll see how it plays out.

    •  If Bennett succeeds in the write-in... (6+ / 0-)

      ...then it has a good chance of staying a GOP seat for this cycle. But M-11 is going to change demographically more quickly than the GOP presumed when they crafted it. No later than 2016, it will be rated "toss up" by the Cooks, Sabatos and other residents of that "neighborhood" of the Political Village (which of course means "leans slightly but noticeably Democratic" in the world outside the Village.)

      Our candidate Taj is going to have a respectable showing no matter what. IF he wins, from my perspective it will simply be a couple of election cycles ahead of schedule.

      When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Sat Jun 02, 2012 at 09:11:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  People (6+ / 0-)

        People really seem ignorant of the district.  We're talking about the wealthiest Congressional district in the state, and one not nearly as red as it's being portrayed as, especially in the Wayne County portion of it, which also happens to have most of the largest municipalities in the district.  Granholm came out of this district, lest we forget.  Now, the stuff up near the corners of Oakland County is exurban and a bit rural, but this is solidly a wealthy suburban district with lost of country club Dems and Republicans; this district is not Livingston County socially conservative, not even close.

        •  Perhaps it's not like Livingston Co... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DuzT, wdrath, Christopher Walker

          But even with the gerrymander and shift, it still includes powerful counterbalances to the "blueness" that can be found in some of the newer-developing outer areas up 96.  Livonia really hasn't changed that much--nor have Plymouth and Northville cities, and I've lived in all of them.  And their R leaning need not be about social conservatism, especially when you're dealing with West Bloomfield levels of wealth--it will depend on the candidate, and Taj may appeal to crossovers for that reason.  But wdrath's right, if the Rs have to fight it, then it's still serving a purpose.

      •  What's changing about it? (0+ / 0-)

        From reading the other comment that describe the wealth of the district, I want to guess that they're like the suburb I live in and the other western suburbs of the Twin Cities.  They're seen as mostly maxed out in what people want for population density so new families aren't moving in, kids are moving off so the population over-all is getting older, which is making the suburbs more Democratic.  I don't want to say though that getting older makes you Democratic but rather the over-all effect of the change in nature of the suburb growing to one staying stagnant is for some reason revealing more Democratic elements.  And the populace is also highly educated so they aren't appreciating this new rightward turn with-in the GOP.

        How close am I?  ;)

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