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View Diary: Beyond the Margin of Error: When Polls Fail, or Why Elizabeth Warren Will Dash GOP Hopes (104 comments)

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  •  Here's an example (2+ / 0-)
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    MichaelNY, bythesea

    ...where undecideds could screw up the "How will they get to 50?" rule:  A poll just before the 2010 Oregon Governor's election showed Kitzhaber (D) at 43.  If you just look at how Kitzhaber would get to 50, it seems like a bit of an uphill slog, but there were 10% undecided.  Looking at the poll's D-R margin of -3, the graph above says on average the polling margin is off by about 3 points in a state as blue as Oregon, so you can tell there's a decent chance of Kitzhaber winning, which he did.  (Thanks to James Allen whose comment above led me to this example.)

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