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View Diary: Beyond the Margin of Error: When Polls Fail, or Why Elizabeth Warren Will Dash GOP Hopes (104 comments)

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  •  Do these apply only for... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, caul, Wary

    ...Presidential cycles?

    I can understand that there may be Obama voters who stayed home in WI. But I don't think anyone is going to go to the polls in MA, vote for Obama, then vote for Scott Brown.

    •  Anyone? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      caul, HudsonValleyMark, James Allen

      Sure, some people will. I guarantee it. In fact, I fully expect Brown to lose by a much smaller margin than Romney. Don't you?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Jun 15, 2012 at 10:17:14 PM PDT

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    •  All cycles (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      There is some weak evidence that the effect is more pronounced for presidential cycles, but there are too few data to tell for sure.

      •  Some data from 2000 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Photobucket

        Have to be careful with 2000 data because there is very real evidence of late movement - though you can argue that had to do with Nader.

        I am sure everyone is wondering, so the average Florida polling in the last week showed Bush ahead by .6667.

        I have always found it fascinating that the September polling in 2000 is actually more accurate in close states than the October or the late polling.

        You can certainly see some support for your argument.  It is worth remember Karl Rove actually misjudged California and New Jersey because of this.

        Send me a message - I want to share data (I have some '96 and '92 data, but not the 2010 data).

        I should also add there is a HUGE problem developing with cell phones.  I exchanged a tweet with Charles Franklin - who said polling right now is a black swan event waiting to happen.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 09:13:33 AM PDT

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        •  You're getting ahead of me! (0+ / 0-)

          That's the plotline of the next diary!  But it's interesting to see it holds up for 2000; I only went back to 2004.

          You may also remember Rove misjudged Hawai'i and sent Dick Cheney flying out there...!

          As far as data, I'm afraid I have to disappoint you.  I don't have a nice, fat spreadsheet of 2010 polling, just  averages of a handful of close races.

          There is definitely a problem with cell phones.  But I have noticed pollsters solving this problem by... calling cell phones anyway.  I've gotten automated polling calls on my cell phone more than once.

    •  Oh HELL yes they will (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Wary

      Take it from a MA resident: Brown's whole "independent" schtick works in this state, for a significant number of people. Obama will get a far larger percentage of the vote than Warren will, guaranteed.

      Obama will probably break 60% in MA. Warren won't come close to that. We have such a reputation as a "blue" state, people forget that our largest voting bloc is actually "unenrolled". And those unenrolled folks love splitting tickets--it makes them feel all important and independenty and shit. It's how we ended up with 12 years of GOP governors in this "blue" state.

      "Maybe: it's a vicious little word that could slay me"--Sara Bareilles

      by ChurchofBruce on Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 11:36:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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