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View Diary: BREAKING: Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals Sends Proposition 8 to Supreme Court! (178 comments)

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  •  That strategy can only work once. (1+ / 0-)
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    jpmassar

    In '04 through '08 (or maybe earlier than '04? Someone remind me), it was, admittedly, an excellent strategy for the far right to put gay marriage bans on the ballot, focusing on elections where driving social conservative turnout was desirable.  My (admittedly faulty) memory makes me think the strategy was exceptionally successful in '06.

    However, because of of a combination of a changing electorate and the simple fact that you can't pass the same state constitutional amendment twice, that hand has already been fully played.  The states where it can be passed have already passed them, the states where various laws failed are going to get progressively more tolerant, and the court challenges are all in the pipeline.  I may be naïve but I suspect that NC's Amendment One may be the last big fight over these kinds of things (I do expect state-based fights to enact equal marriage, such as in New York and, if necessary, in California).

    But on balance, this isn't going to be an electoral issue in '12 and, unless SCOTUS comes down with an Earth-shattering Brown v. Board for LGBT rights (hey, I can dream), won't be an issue in '14 either.

    I'm personally of the opinion that the LGBT movement for equality is moving so quickly that, unless the cases in the appellate pipeline right now result in a victory, once a SCOTUS decision comes down, it will have to affect only a minority of states, that a majority of the US population will live in states allowing equal marriage by then.

    "The first drawback of anger is that it destroys your inner peace; the second is that it distorts your view of reality. If you come to understand that anger is really unhelpful, you can begin to distance yourself from anger." - The Dalai Lama

    by auron renouille on Tue Jun 05, 2012 at 01:53:03 PM PDT

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