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View Diary: Timeline of An Election Beyond Credulity (27 comments)

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  •  Okay - here is a thought..... (1+ / 0-)
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    Troubadour

    I have read recently that in the 2008 Presidential election Obama underperformed relative to the polls due to what some suspect was racism.  While is is easy to tell a pollster they would vote for Obama, when it came time to actually pull the lever, they just could NOT vote for a black man.

    Could a similar thing have happened in Wisconsin.  While exit polls suggested a tie - it has been noted that many voters were against the idea of a recall in the first place.  Could voters who despise Walker's actions, still vote for the guy purely because they didn't believe in the recall?

    On a different note, your diary is fantastic.  Thanks.

    •  I don't see that being a real phenomenon here. (2+ / 0-)
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      rosarugosa, Larsstephens

      First, the notion that there were significant numbers of people both disapproving of Walker but also against the recall was never indicated by any poll.  What you're thinking of was a poll that showed people thought recalls should only be for misconduct, but as you can see, plenty of misconduct was occurring, and it was 50/50 on the specific question of the Walker recall.  So, as I noted above, a lot of people would have had to spontaneously change their minds about Walker, or been lying about it consistently to pollsters right up to the moment polls closed.  

      In fact, people who signed the actual recall petition would have had to change their minds, or else everyone who didn't sign would have had to break for Walker along the same margins as self-identified conservatives.

      And while I'm sure there were some people who opposed Walker but were against the recall, it just doesn't seem to track with human behavior that they would be motivated to go out and actually vote for the guy.  It's hard enough getting supporters to turn out for an election - even one as profound as this was - but claiming that actual opponents would turn out to vote for a guy because they have a principled objection to a process is just a bridge too far, and I've never heard of anything like that ever happening.

      "I'm going to rub your faces in things you try to avoid." - Muad'Dib

      by Troubadour on Fri Jul 06, 2012 at 05:59:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think once the recall was officially "on" the (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Troubadour

        GOP ramped up a huge effort to keep Walker in power.  They also had the whole GOP primary to help them draw  national attention to the issue. Meanwhile the Wisconsin Dems/We are Wisconsin had a more lukewarm backing, kind of like, "Well, let's see if you can pull this off". Every guy in the GOP primary was praising Walker up and down, they didn't appear publicly with him, but they made calls for him, and constantly said things like "You have the best governor ever..."  

        The election was the chance for people who sympathized with Walker or who felt that you should "live with it" to show that either by voting for Walker or not voting at all.

        I agree that it doesn't seem likely that people who didn't like Walker to vote for him, but it didn't seem likely to me that people would call the 800 million for the train a "boondoggle" and many did. There is also this idea that people want things to be "back to normal".

        I am not trying to point fingers here, I just think it is more likely that either people were dead set against "overturning democracy" or they could have been swayed, but weren't.

        I agree with you that we should have steps in place to prevent election fraud.

        I think your timeline is wonderful. I had forgotten a lot of those things. I could be wrong about the GOP support vs. support on the Dem side. You could be right about election fraud. I don't know.

         

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