Skip to main content

View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: More Wisconsin analysis, public aware of the issues (122 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  I'd have to see the numbers. (0+ / 0-)

    I live in Illinois and I know tons of people from here who went to college in Wisconsin.

    "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

    by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:20:07 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  also, there's a mobilization issue (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vicky

      On a campus, you can create a buzz.

      That said, I would take the exit poll estimates of youth turnout with a grain of salt. I don't know all the methodological details this year, but you've got 35 interviewers handing out exit polls and guesstimating the ages of the people who refuse to fill them out. It's not bad, but it sure isn't perfect.

      •  Yeah, good point. (0+ / 0-)

        Most campuses probably have polling places too, so it's a lot easier for the semi-motivated to roll out of bed to vote.

        At home, they have to get in the car and schlep to the local firehouse or whatever.

        "The disturbing footage depicts piglets being drop kicked and swung by their hind legs. Sows are seen being kicked and shoved as they resist leaving their piglets."

        by Bush Bites on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 05:37:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  And exit poll interviewers tend to be young (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HudsonValleyMark

        as I saw again this week, so they may not be as good at estimating age as we oldsters -- and they may not find as many older voters willing to be interviewed by youngsters.  

        And then there is that weird Wisconsin tradition of lieing to pollsters, weary as we are of them in a swing state.  You can't lie about as much when face to face with an exit poller, of course.  But I'm here to tell ya that, having been called dozens of times by pollsters just in recent months and weeks, I am a 19-year-old white male Ron Paul fanboy.

        I say that for the entertainment value for my 70-year-old spouse, who cracked up every time he heard me do that.  Then he got into it, too.   He is a 23-year-old African American female supporter of Romney.

        Hey, the winters are long here, and so are the endless campaigns in a swing state, well before the recalls.  So we take our fun with the outsiders -- and especially their stoopid questions that show no knowledge of Wisconsin law, geography, etc. -- as we can.

        "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

        by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:58:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  FWIW (0+ / 0-)
          You can't lie about as much when face to face with an exit poller, of course.
          The exit polls are paper questionnaires, so you could pose as a thirty-something neo-Nazi if you wanted, to the extent that the response categories allow it. I believe the interviewers are supposed to estimate the ages of both respondents and non-respondents, so if many respondents in a precinct messed with their ages, the folks in the decision room might conclude that the data from that precinct should be downweighted or ignored. Or they might not notice at all. Whatever.

          Anyway, my main point is that when we're comparing 18% in 2008 to 16% in 2012, that difference is in the range of random sampling error -- not even to mention other sources of error.

          •  Good point (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HudsonValleyMark

            and thanks for reiterating it.

            Interesting, though, re your previous point, as I saw (this week) an exit poller who was doing the interview orally.

            We must have been subjected to multiple exit pollers, which is not surprising, with the incredible multiplicity of other sorts of pollsters so fascinated by Wisconsinites.

            "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

            by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 08:38:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  well, stuff does change without my noticing, but.. (0+ / 0-)

              I would be shocked if Edison Media Research switched over to oral interviews. Actually, it's almost inconceivable to me that they could do that if they wanted to: too many questions. Conceivably they could have a short-form interview; for all I know, maybe someone paid them to do a study of interview mode effects! (Presumably many people are more willing to check some boxes on a survey than to flat-out tell some stranger at the polling place how they voted.)

              But anyone can do an exit poll (subject to restrictions that vary across states), so if you're not fairly sure that it was someone from the media-sponsored exit poll, I would guess that it wasn't.

              •  Thanks, again, for more info (0+ / 0-)

                and fyi, I'm not fairly sure at all about the exit poller's employer.

                As soon as I figured out that it was an exit poller, I just ran like hell to get away from being a lab rat, yet again.  It's bad enough being a canary in the coal mine of Wisconsin.

                "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

                by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 09:19:08 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Tons of Illinoisans is a terrifying thought. (0+ / 0-)

      And I bet that those you know went to Marquette -- we can be thankful if most of those students did not vote, conservative as they are -- or UW-Madison?  

      "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

      by Cream City on Fri Jun 08, 2012 at 06:52:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site