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View Diary: News from the Arctic: 21 June 2012 (21 comments)

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  •  Excellent Post. I think we'll see a new minimum (12+ / 0-)

    I think that it won't take the "perfect storm" conditions of 2007 to reach a new minimum this year because we have seen such a drop in volume since then.

    Remember the record N Hem. heat in May? Northern Siberia was way above normal. All the feedback loops are setting up to continue melting sea ice.

    look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

    by FishOutofWater on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 11:23:42 AM PDT

    •  my inclination is to believe we will (6+ / 0-)

      see one as well, FOoW.  But I am uncomfortable being too definitive, as we saw a similar plunge in 2010 (not quite so low as this so early) and then things slowed down to the point that I think it was barely 3rd lowest).

      BTW, I wish you'd been up in Providence for NN12.  Oh well :-/.

      "Mitt Romney has more positions than the Kama Sutra." -- me "Social justice is love, made public." -- Cornel West

      by billlaurelMD on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 12:29:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I also try to avoid reacting to short-term effects (6+ / 0-)

        The long-term increase in heat content of the combined north Atlantic and Arctic is the elephant in the room. Warm Atlantic ocean water is slowly but surely penetrating deeper into the Eurasian side of the Arctic leading to the retreat of sea ice on that side. The albedo effect then amplifies the heating in the summer months.

        A large surge of meltwater from Greenland could temporarily stop this feedback loop but that would be a disaster in its own right. Otherwise, the summer sea ice will continue to decline and the Arctic warming will increase, with increasing GHGs.

        The short term variability is a distraction from the general trend. Last winter I highlighted the period where warm water pushed into the Arctic because it was an important event in the expansion of warm Atlantic water.

        look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

        by FishOutofWater on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 01:23:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not convinced we'll hit a new extent min, but... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lujane

      ...almost certainly a volume minimum.

      Funny pattern I've noticed over the past few years as I check the NSIDC site at least once every two days:

      If it's unseasonably cool in Brooklyn (regardless of the season), I can almost guarantee ice melt is accelerating according to NSIDC data (or at least slowing if during the freeze up season).  With this 90+ weather out east, I expect that recent nose dive in extent to level out for a few days.  If we go back into the high 70's, then we'll see it accelerate again.  I realize this is about as scientific as a farmer sniffing the air for rain.  But the correlation seems to be pretty consistent.

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