#### Comment Preferences

• ##### Hmmm(0+ / 0-)

Something strikes me as odd plotting error against the thing that there is error about. If the data were really random, R^2 would be 1.

Obama <- rbinom(10, 500, .5)/500
error <- Obama - .5
plot(Obama, error)

in R gives this.

So, deviations from a perfect line indicate NON-randomness.... Seems odd.

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

• ##### Hmmmmm(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

Don't know R - It seems you're using a binomial distribution to simulate the error of a bunch of polls of one contest assuming the real %Obama is 50%?  In that case, I see how give a perfect line of error vs % Obama.

Wouldn't it make a difference that this is 51 state contests with 51 values of Real Obama %?  Shouldn't we expect in a random universe, that the polling average from Utah might overestimate Obama's performance, while the polling average from Oklahoma might underestimate it, etc?  So that in deep red states, on average, the errors cancel each other out?

• ##### It would certainly make a difference(0+ / 0-)

but what I'm worried about is that a random noise situations produced a perfect R^2.

I think what you want to do is look at some other measurement of the redness of the state (e.g. Obama % in 2008) and correlate that with polling errors about Obama.

But I'm not completely sure. And I just drank a beer, which doesn't help.

I write about Learning Disabilities and general stuff at Associated Content

[ Parent ]

• ##### Ok(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
plf515

I did use Obama % in 2008 in the x-axis on the plot above... how many beers have you had?  :)  Did you mean some other measure of redness besides %Obama?  I could use PVI, or Kerry 2004, but those are very highly correleated with Obama 2008, so it shouldn't make any difference.

A plot of Actual %Obama - Polled %Obama vs %Obama shows the average errors are positive for high %Obama, and slightly negative for very low %Obama.

A plot of Actual %Kerry - Polled % Kerry vs % Obama (so there the x-axis is not the thing with the errors about it) shows about the same thing.

Something weird just happened to me.  I was banned... and then a few minutes later unbanned.  Hmmm.

• ##### Oh, good. I had no idea what any of that meant,(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
TofG

so I had a beer too.  I think I could drink a case and it wouldn't help...

History merely repeats itself; it doesn't cure its own ills. That is the burden of the present.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Good. I thought it was just me. :)(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
ZedMont

Obama yes.

[ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.