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View Diary: Beyond the Margin of Error: Why State Polls Look More Favorable for Obama Than National Polls (19 comments)

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  •  I rarely pay attention to national (5+ / 0-)

    polls for these reasons.

    •  That can be wise. (6+ / 0-)

      Especially it will save your sanity if you're not following the crazy ups and downs of Ras and Gallup!

      Sometimes, though, there's a dearth of state polling and only national polling is available.  For example, early national polling after Obama's same-sex marriage announcement made it clear there was no big effect on voter preferences; waiting for state polls would have taken a month or so.  So I would argue that national polling has its uses.

      •  I view national polling (0+ / 0-)

        as an early warning indicator.  State polling until September is two infrequent to catch a sudden shift definitively.  National polling can do that in a way watching state polling cannot.

        The problem is that I don't believe either Rasmussen or Gallup - so I take each with a grain of salt.  Gallup will get REALLY wild when they start using the Likely Voter model - which I am sure will lean Republican.

        National polling is particularly useful around the release on unemployment numbers (though I also watch consumer sentiment numbers as well).

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 07:08:06 PM PDT

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        •  "two infrequent" (0+ / 0-)

          geez....

          The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

          by fladem on Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 07:11:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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