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View Diary: Beyond the Margin of Error: Why State Polls Look More Favorable for Obama Than National Polls (19 comments)

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  •  According to CNN, Romney leads in swing states (1+ / 0-)
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    Wreck Smurfy

    They have Romney at 53% in these 15 states. Given their poor showing this past Thursday and their desperately low ratings, I'm inclined to be skeptical of anything they claim.

    "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

    by sebastianguy99 on Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 03:45:44 PM PDT

    •  Wow, so according to their version of events (1+ / 0-)
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      sebastianguy99

      he leads by 53% to 47% in PA, NH, MI, WI, IA, CO and NV?

      nice trolling RASMUSCNN...

    •  Probably just normal error. (0+ / 0-)

      That's 51% +/- 4%, with N=534.  1 out of 20 times a subsample like this will come out with an error of 5, 6 points in the wrong direction.  That's probably what happened here.

      The DKos polls over the time period April-June have those same states at Obama 48%, Romney 45%.  With N=3914, margin of error 1.6%  

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