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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Joe Walsh endorses Tammy Duckworth! Seriously! (but read on) (98 comments)

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  •  Is there a difference?? (4+ / 0-)
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    PassionateJus, R30A, rja, askew

    PPP pretty much nailed the winning candidates % in AZ-08. I think they had 53% and Barber got 52%. That's pretty close to spot on. The difference was the spread. Kelly did about 5 points better.

    Does PPP have a democratic house effect if the undecideds just went to the chalenger? How were they supposed to assign the undecideds? If 92% of the people you polled gave you a preference and 8% said I don't know its hard to compare the poll to the actual results which always add up to 100%.

    I guess what I'm saying is if a pollster not only gets the winner right but also the winner's percentage isn't that pretty damn accurate? It would be different if the poll had Kelly down 4 but he won by 2. In that case the pollster didn't get the winner nor the winner's percentage but was still off by the same amount.

    I guess I'm in the camp that PPP seems to be doing a better job picking the winners and their winning % than the spread.

    Its like what my college baseball coach used to say after getting a cheap basehit. "A hit is a hit. They won't ask you to draw a picture of it tomorrow."

    •  PPP Also Good On SSM Props Too (1+ / 0-)
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      I notice that PPP has been accurate as far as the pro marriage equality side in the two state's they have polled in recent years. Any difference in the actual outcome vs the final poll seems to be undecideds breaking largely against marriage equality.

      ME Q1 PPP Nov 2, 2009
      Yes 51%
      No 47%

      Actual Vote
      Yes 53%
      No 47%

      NC Amend 1 PPP May 1, 2012
      Yes 55%
      No 41%

      Actual Vote
      Yes 61%
      No 39%

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