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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Weekend Digest: Welcome to an election cycle where everything is up in the air. (91 comments)

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  •  Only if you accept (0+ / 0-)

    Only if you accept only polls that favor Obama, Obama is at worst probably down 1 or 2 but he is not ahead by 4,  PPP has a Dem lean this cycle

    •  Um, no, the corretc line is (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fladem, R30A

      "only if you accept polls with a history or reliability"

      All polls are not right.  Some are garbage.  If Q is right, then PPP and Marist are very wrong.  Averaging them give as +0 amount.

      But the only two pollsters that show a Romney edge are Purple Strategies, which is a no track record outfit, and Q which has gone from Obama +7 to Romney +6 in two months, while no one else sees anything like that kind of movement.  Their Obama +7 is just as likely garbage as their Romney +6.

      Face it, averaging all pollsters is Romney +0.  Tossing out the no track record, bad track record, and obvious nonsense (a 13 point shift in two months) leads to Obama +4.

      Regardless though, the bottom line is Florida is a toosup.  There is no way to justify "leaning red".  The statement is false, based on the public polls.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Sun Jun 17, 2012 at 04:40:15 PM PDT

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