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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Rep. Dan Lungren defends fraudulent voter registration drive (134 comments)

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  •  Yeah, they've polled MI for a while (0+ / 0-)

    Pretty clear even with the Rasmussen poll that the state is closer than expected right now.  I don't expect it to last, but Obama may have to spend more here than anticipated.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 05:53:50 AM PDT

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    •  I Don't Have Much Respect For These People..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rich in PA

      First in 2010, they unilaterally reward the party that almost to a person called for their state's economy to be vaporized simply to score political points against unions.  And now in 2012, they're undecided when it comes to the man who specifically saved their economy against the man who specifically called for it to go bankrupt.  Seriously Michigan?  Why don't you just burn in hell then!

    •  I'm still not convinced (7+ / 0-)

      And won't be until OFA go up with ads. Their internals obviously don't indicate the need at the moment. Biden certainly implied that not so long ago. Also note that Mitchell found Bush leading in June 2004 at a time his national poll average was no better than 45 percent.

      Here they note the number of independents in the sample but not the Democratic-Republican split. I wonder if they are in EPIC territory with a LV turnout that looks nothing like recent presidential elections in Michigan.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:05:40 AM PDT

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      •  Whose internals? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83

        The Obama campaign's? That's probably true.

        Also, this poll, from what I can tell, doesn't tell us the party breakdown, except for Independents. It does tell us that Obama is getting only 77 percent of the black vote, which is ridiculous. I don't know anything about this pollster, but leaving out such crucial information makes me highly skeptical.

        Or put it this way: Obama's getting 44 percent of the white vote here. In 2008, whites were 82 percent of the electorate, according to CNN. If he gets that much in 2012 and everything else stays about the same, he wins with 51.68 percent.

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:28:47 AM PDT

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        •  I bet Romney's internals, too, because... (0+ / 0-)

          ...if he's running even in Michigan, there's no reason that's not as good a bet for him as Iowa where he's airing ads.  And Michigan has a lot more electoral votes, it's a much bigger prize than Iowa.

          I repeat what I've said before:  look at CT-Sen and CO-Gov in 2010, this happened plenty where there were multiple bad polls saying the same thing at the same time, and they were all full of crap.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:41:10 AM PDT

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        •  I prefer to use 2004 as a baseline in Michigan (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          Because it was competitive right until the end unlike 2008. What percentage of the white vote did the exit poll indicate Kerry received in carrying the state? 44.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:00:01 AM PDT

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    •  Pretty clear that's not true (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, itskevin, David Nir

      I keep seeing this Michigan polls and then looking for reports of TV ads in Michigan by OFA or allies, but crickets from them all.

      I still follow the money and always will as long as OFA has it to spend.  And they just reported having $105 million cash-on-hand at the end of May, so they have it to spend.

      The Obama campaign and allies wouldn't stay off the air in Michigan if these polls were right.  So I dismiss them.

      If we start hearing about Obama going on the air up there and/or otherwise ramping up campaign activity to a higher level in the state, only then I'll believe it's gotten tight.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:29:21 AM PDT

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      •  Do we know how many offices (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        are in Michigan for each campaign? At this point, that is what's key. It becomes harder and harder, in both physical and monetary terms, to get that going the closer we get to election day.

        This Bloomberg piece talks about how the Obama campaign has 35 offices in Ohio and 40 in Florida. There's no comparison to what Romney has (hey guys, let details and context meet some day; they'd surely get along nicely!), but I have to assume it's less, or they wouldn't write the article. Now, while Michigan was never a big focus, and it's not clear it will be going forward, it's in the second tier, which means there's probably a decent level of infrastructure in the state.

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:35:52 AM PDT

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        •  I don't think that comparison works right now (0+ / 0-)

          Romney is still ramping up and in the process of hiring more staff and opening offices.  We can't evaluate while he's still in the middle of that.  OFA has largely completed that process, so their numbers make sense.  I don't know how many offices we have in Michigan, but it has to be evaluated in relative rather than absolute terms since OFA has taken to opening offices in far-flung places that are not remotely close to any competitive state.

          I'm curious how the campaign media are privately reacting to these Michigan polls.  MSNBC First Read reported the EPIC-MRA poll largely without comment.  But no one is really talking about Michigan, they're acting like the campaigns are, that it's not really a battleground.  And yet these public polls keep coming.  I suspect, but don't know, that they ask the campaigns about it, the campaigns wave off the polls as inaccurate, and so the reporters don't bother to focus more on the state.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:11:05 AM PDT

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          •  Okay, fair enough, but how many offices (0+ / 0-)

            do they plan to have?

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:52:49 AM PDT

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        •  Well look at it this way (0+ / 0-)

          There are 67 counties in Florida. Assuming there is only one field office per county, OFA could essentially be ceding the Panhandle and Northern Florida and focusing on places where people actually live

          •  Offices Still Opening (0+ / 0-)

            I'm on several jobs lists and I can tell you that OFA is just getting started. They are still hiring and they are still opening up offices all over the country. They will probably always be hiring for somewhere, right up to October. That's what they did in 2008 (I know, I almost took a job in Indiana in October that year).

            Also, I've talked to folks in Florida (where I currently live) and I believe that they expect to at least open up one office for every county within the state. Sure, some will be just a hole in the wall, but there will be staff all through out the state, nonetheless.

            •  Well sometimes all you need is a hole in the wall (0+ / 0-)

              for the few like minded people to get together and feel they are doing all they can to contribute. And you dont need a big rented office space for some dedicated phone bankers with their cell phones to call their friends and neighbors.

            •  Good to hear! (0+ / 0-)

              Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

              by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:53:15 AM PDT

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