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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Rep. Dan Lungren defends fraudulent voter registration drive (134 comments)

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  •  Quinnipiac (7+ / 0-)

    continues to be the king of swing.  I love the write up, as though this wild ass swing must be explainable by events on the ground (including gay marriage?!).  No, Quinnipiac, one or both of your polls is way off.

    •  Swingier than Scott (R)assmussen? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem

      Well, perhaps for different reasons.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:04:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  to be fair the crosstabs do show pro-Obama swings (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      in most sub-categories. I calculate that around half the 10-point shift since their last poll is down to a shift in the sample composition, with the remaining 5 points due to what looks like a "real" improvement for Obama.

      Obama may or may not pull it out in FL but I'll be happy even if he loses but keeps it close enough that Romney has to campaign actively there all the way till the election. Romney has to win Florida at all costs so will be forced to do whatever it takes to keep himself competitive there, which could in turn ease Obama's path in a number of other battleground states.

      •  To be even more fair (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, itskevin

        this poll is well within the recent norm, apart from Purple Strategies.

        Agree with you that Florida is gravy and a very narrow loss here is a big picture win for Obama.

      •  Worth Noting That...... (0+ / 0-)

        Florida polls almost always understate Republican strength there.  It was true in 2000 (every poll showed Gore ahead).  It was true in 2002 (Jeb Bush was supposedly in the fight of his life against McBride).  It was true in 2004 (Kerry was neck-and-neck with the guy who beat him by five points).  And it was true in 2010 (polls indicated Sink would win).  2008 was the only year in my memory where the late polling in Florida was right.  Unless a Democrat is consistently up by five points in Florida, expect them to lose...and if they don't, it's a pleasant surprise.

        •  I don't recall (0+ / 0-)

          most polls showing Gore ahead in Florida in late 2000.  Maybe I forgot something?

          As I recall, Bush was usually ahead or at the very least even.  I was pleasantly surprised when the state was called for Gore early on election night, then confused when Bush moved back ahead with a lot of areas (mostly Dem-leaning) still ahead.  I went to bed with the state still uncalled and woke up to....well, you all remember.

          36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:34:20 AM PDT

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          •  I'm Not Finding Lists of FL Polls In My Search.... (0+ / 0-)

            ...that I can link you to and give a definitive answer.  I can only find references to individual 2000 polls, most of which show Gore leading in Florida in the final weeks of the campaign but a few of which have Bush ahead.  Here's a link chronicling an issue we still have today that I remember being an issue back in 2000 as well.....polls that are all over the place.  http://www.pbs.org/...

            •  Yeah, the 2000 polls were all over the place (0+ / 0-)

              especially the trackers, which showed wild swings often in response to trivia that the press chose to harp on, such as Bush's allegedly subliminal ad or Gore's sighing in debate.

              And I guess they meant to refer to Scott Rasmussen, not Steve?

              36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 09:08:11 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  The count was so unreliable (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            I don't think we can read anything into a comparison with the polls.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 11:11:41 AM PDT

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        •  Bush certainly outperformed the FL polls in 2004 (0+ / 0-)

          But the final RCP average for the gubernatorial race in 2010 was Scott by 1% which matched his actual margin on the nose.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:48:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Sink wasn't ahead in polls (0+ / 0-)

          in any convincing way. IIRC, some polls showed her up, some showed her down.

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