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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Rep. Dan Lungren defends fraudulent voter registration drive (134 comments)

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  •  The dynamics just seem so different (1+ / 0-)
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    I continue to believe a comparison to 2004 is more apt. In that case the preseident is in a similar if not stronger position than the previous incumbent at a comparable moment. Then again, Romney isn't going dark in August.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:59:58 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  well if you're comparing with incumbent presidents (0+ / 0-)

      I'd agree that 2004 is the closest comparison in recent times (so far at least). But in pure polling numbers 2008 was also rather close until it broke strongly Obama's way after the Lehman collapse in mid-September. With 20-20 hindsight it looks like a rather comfortable win for Obama but it wasn't until the last month or so that it became clear he was going to win.

      So far at least the 2012 presidential race has been remarkable for its non-volatility, and it could well stay that way right until the end. I think there are probably only 3 things that might trigger a breakout, one of which is the SCOTUS decision on healthcare due imminently (others being a significant change in the economic outlook or a foreign policy crisis).

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