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View Diary: The ACA ruling: What the Court will decide (168 comments)

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  •  I'll be glad when this is over (1+ / 0-)
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    The truth is that SCOTUS will decide what it wants to decide. And that is whatever serves the following issues - 1 whatever serves the 1500 people who control the US (aka the 1%) - 2 whatever does President Obama the most harm and - 3 best serves the image of the Justices.

    "option 1" (striking down ACA entirely) Is the status quo better for the 1500 or can they game the ACA and profit from it? (for my opinion see below) Will that anger the proponents or rally the opponents? Will this SCOTUS go down in history as "saviors of liberty" or as partisan tools?

    "option 2" (striking down the mandate only) The Administration is right; this will make the ACA unworkable. It will have to be repealed before it is implemented fully - by its supporters - but not until after the 2012 elections. So, will the electorate care in time? and will they blame the President or SCOTUS?

    "option 3" (upholding ACA) The present situation is that insurance companies determine how much we spend on health care (they pay or refuse to pay the bills) ACA will change that. Under ACA insurance companies will be allowed to charge their rate payers no more than (and therefore exactly) 133% of how much they pay the health care providers (doctors and hospitals) Therefore doctors will determine total health care spending. (insurers will not deny coverage because that would lower their profits, therefore all bills will be paid) In addition, rate payers will receive an up to $6000 per taxpayer subsidy. Since doctors' bills will not be regulated their total bills will be at least what they are now, plus the subsidy. Ultimately the question is - present total spending is $2.6 trillion, insurance profit is 30% ($860 billion) - after ACA total spending will be $3.2 trillion and industry profits will be $800 billion. (plus the additional profits the 1% will make renting office space, charging more for malpractice insurance, etc. ) Businesses will also save up to $600 billion by claiming that the subsidy allows them to drop their employee plans.
    At this point it looks like the math is in favor of the 1% allowing ACA to stand. However, the 1% are fascists, not capitalists. Their goal is power over people, not profits. Upholding the ACA will increase government power over citizens, but mostly symbolically, and more practically it will make the President look good in an election year, and even if I'm right about the eventual costs that can be papered over by borrowing - it might take years before the deficits catch up to us, and who knows, we might use a few years of what looks like an effective policy to restore confidence in good government and elect honest leaders. I believe that most fascists do not have the courage (faith in the power of evil) to take that risk. Even if the ACA does fail catastrophically it is still possible that the 1% will get the blame.

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