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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Should you care more about national polls, or state polls? (69 comments)

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  •  Some have argued that one can combine national (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, scamperdo, pademocrat

    polls with a state traditional rank order relative to the national average to gain some idea of where poorly polled states are at.  

    But, these rank orders do change.  Virginia seems stronger for us this cycle, and what the heck is going on in Michigan?  I've been a little out of touch this last week, so was shocked to see MI as a battleground state, evenly matched, when seemed to remember us having a 10 point lead there, and great confidence after Romney suggested letting the auto companies fail?  

    So, I'm baffled.

    It will be a wierd election if we can put Virginia in the safe column and have to worry about Michigan and Wisconson as the potential tipping point states.

    The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

    by HoundDog on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 05:44:10 PM PDT

    •  Michigan is NOT really that close. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pollbuster, majcmb1, pademocrat, DCCyclone

      It's just been bombarded by pollsters who are overstating the GOP share of the vote there, thereby skewing the average in Romney's favor. If even Razzy (!!!!!) shows Obama leading well outside the MoE (+8) in Michigan, then he is likely winning by double digits again.

      •  But Razzy is the only pollster (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext, Delilah, itskevin, pademocrat

        to show Romney ahead in Wisconsin, everyone else there has it Obama by at least 5 points.

        •  Yea (0+ / 0-)

          Lately MI has looked dicier than WI.

          •  Michigan is not dicey (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            We know it's not dicey because OFA and Dem allies aren't running any ads there.

            OFA's internal polling is far better than any public poll, and they ended May with $105 million cash-on-hand.  That means they're able to air ads in all states that are running close.  Adding one more state to the list, which has been 9, is no big deal with that big a warchest, and essential if Michigan has really tightened.

            And yet, they're dark in Michigan.

            That tells me the reality is we're up at least high single-digits, more likely double digits, with Obama's job approval there topping 50.

            I don't give any credence to polls that contradict OFA's campaign behavior.  Same thing going the other way in Arizona, where the PPP poll saying we're down just 49-46 doesn't comport with OFA's silence on the airwaves there.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Jun 23, 2012 at 05:00:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ads aren't everything in an effort (0+ / 0-)

              Glanced at this article from Rolling Stone in my vet's waiting room yesterday, (yes, from March) ref

              But almost all of the scenarios require Obama to win Michigan and its 16 electoral votes. That's why, one insider says, the campaign is treating the state as "a true battleground – it's one of our largest operations."
              The Obama field office in Detroit, a spacious operation overlooking the Motor-City Casino near Interstate 94, has been up and running since June 2009. Open seven days a week, it has made some 40,000 calls in the past three months, working to transform supporters on the sidelines into active volunteers. It has also registered more than 4,000 people to vote. There's not a paid organizer in the room, but it remains a hive of self-organized activity, with more than a dozen volunteers working cellphones, often until 10 or 11 at night.
              Seems to me like OfA is taking its Michigan effort seriously. I have not heard of any such OfA effort in a "safe" state such as NY or CA.

              I think the Romney/SuperPac ads are an effort to "catch up". But yes, ad responses to ground games like this are historically futile.

              Bottom line: we don't need ads to get the votes. They're there in MI, but it's close enough (I believe high single digits) that we need to make sure they turn out.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Sun Jun 24, 2012 at 08:00:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Exactly! That's what I'm saying. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          If even Razzy, the crazy @ss "pollster" who's constantly throwing out unbelievable results (that almost always skew GOP), is saying Obama is well ahead in Michigan, then Obama truly is well ahead in Michigan. And if you don't believe me, then believe the Romney campaign and pro Romney SuperPACs & their recent MI ad buys (where are they?).

      •  Rmoney should be in double negatives in MI (0+ / 0-)

        I don't see how "The auto industry should go fuck itself"* will help him there.

        *I know that's not what he ACTUALLY said, but it amounted to the same thing.

        A village can not reorganize village life to suit the village idiot.

        by METAL TREK on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 08:50:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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