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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Should you care more about national polls, or state polls? (69 comments)

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  •  Thanks (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, DCCyclone

    That pretty much comports with what PPP has been finding. It's not quite good enough. If we can get a stable national lead over 5 points or so, I thank we take back the House notwithstanding the crappy redistricting.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:09:03 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  But that's the thing... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden, majcmb1, pademocrat, DCCyclone

      It now depends on how Dems do in all those new winnable seats in Washington, California, Arizona, Florida, and New York (where Dems mostly benefitted from independent redistricting), as well as how the gerrymanders in Illinois (pro-Dem), North Carolina (pro-GOP), Maryland (pro-Dem), Ohio (pro-GOP), and Pennsylvania (pro-GOP) hold up.

      •  I do sometimes struggle (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        majcmb1, atdnext, bear83, pademocrat

        with which is the independent variable here. My basic view is that if the electorate is thinking nationally and we are nationally, there are plenty of seats that are theoretically in reach that just aren't on our radar right now.

        The Presidential electorate is pretty partisan; more so than since before the 1960s, I think. That could really work for us this year.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 06:31:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes and no. (0+ / 0-)

          On one hand, there are still a whole lot of local variables that prevent many Congressional races from becoming national referenda by default. But OTOH, both the DCCC & NRCC are pushing overarching national themes. In the end, I ultimately do think President Obama will be the #1 factor in most competitive House races. He'll probably help Republicans gain even more of a stronghold in Greater Appalachia, but OTOH that will likely be more than offset by Obama lifting a number of Dems to victory in The West (most notably CO-06, AZ-09, NV-03, NV-04, CA-26, CA-41, CA-47, & CA-52). The fate of the House may ultimately rest on how much ticket splitting occurs in "The Acela Corridor".

          •  Cook reports thinks the House will remain GOP (0+ / 0-)
            But Democrats can't get to a majority simply by winning seats they held in the dismal year of 2010. And the clearer it becomes that President Obama is headed for an exceedingly close reelection race, the dimmer Democrats' chances of winning back a House majority appear.

            America could have chosen to be the worlds doctor, or grocer. We choose instead to be her policeman. pity

            by cacamp on Fri Jun 22, 2012 at 09:23:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  He's not exactly going out on a limb there (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, DCCyclone

              Nothing in the dynamics of the election indicates that there's a sufficient wind for Democrats to take the house.  If they can get to a 10 seat can, that would be a good showing.

              In '96, after the '94 shellacking and even with Clinton's win, they only gained 8 seats back.

              “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

              by Paleo on Sat Jun 23, 2012 at 04:56:09 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Was Congress this unpopular in 1996? (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, redrelic17, pademocrat

                I think we are rather pessimistic about our chances. Some may say realistic, but I don't think that is the case. Republican's seem to be giving the loss of their majority more credence then we are. Although we know less then half the stuff insider Democrats do. So making assumptions can be a little hard.

                20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Sat Jun 23, 2012 at 06:24:02 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Isn't the actual number like 9 to have a strong (0+ / 0-)

      ....Wave type year, and 7 to have a majority win?

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