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View Diary: It's Not The DLC and I Can Prove It (318 comments)

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  •  Ugh (none)
    So, what you're saying is, after Chris Shays, there's basically no low-hanging fruit in the House GOP. Ugh.
    •  In Part, Yeah (none)
      I'm going to do a full post on this, but after the 2002 election, I read some papers arguing that one of the main factors was redistricting.  By the 2000 boundaries, Bush won something like a net of 14 more CD's than did Gore, and Dems held more Bush CD's than Repubs held Gore CD's.  After the redistricting, it went to something like a net of 22 Bush-won CD's.  Considering that Bush did better in 2004 than 2000, my guess is that Bush won almost every Repub-held CD.  

      It's peoples' complete ignorance of information like this that drives me crazy when somebody looks at a net loss of (4?) seats in Congress from 2002 to 2004, which is almost completely attributable to the Texas redistricting, and conclude that Pelosi did a shitty job (or that Gephardt performed poorly in gaining seats in every election from 96 to 2000, and that the losses in 2002 were almost completely attributable to redistricting losses, especially in MI, OH and PA).  

      The map is against us, but Dems still regularly outperform the Repubs vs. their presidential candidates.  That's why we hold several more Repub-performing seats than the Repubs hold Dem-performing seats.  

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