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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: All about Utah, as primary eve is upon us (75 comments)

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    DCCyclone, Sylv

    I'm not even paying this poll much attention beyond the fact that it simply confirms a tight race.  As I've said before on the national polls, nothing much has changed in this district where you'd expect McDowell to be down from previous polling in this district.  If this poll had showed him up beyond mid single digits or down by that same amount, then I might just toss out the result.  But, this seems to confirm that this race is tight, and in my mind knowing the district, generally, and knowing that 2010 was a wave year, I feel pretty comfortable in feeling that in a presidential election year with a higher turnout and Democratic incumbent, McDowell's chances are increased.  Just as I think it was safe to assume that the race was more likely to break toward Benishek in 2010 given tea  party insurgency, I think if the polls remain close, it's also pretty safe to assume that it's more likely than not that the race breaks the other way this November.

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