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View Diary: sawolf's US Senate Race Ratings (47 comments)

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  •  tossups (5+ / 0-)

    I would put VA at lean D. Obama is favored there, and I think Kaine will run maybe a point or two ahead of him. It's easier for me to picture a Romney/Kaine voter than an Obama/Allen voter.

    I think WI is tilt R with Thompson, tilt D with anyone else.

    I think McCaskill can win with a good turnout operation and a brutal negative campaign, but I'd give her a little less than 50-50 (tilt R) to pull it off. I think NV 2010 is a good comparison. MO in 2012 is probably about as generically bad for Dems as NV was in 2010. MO does not have Reid's Vegas machine and none of the Reeps are quite as bad as Angle, but Reid also won with room to spare. I think McCaskill has the best odds against Akin (far right, asshole, stupid as hell), the worst against Brunner who seems to be pretty shrewd.

    I like Donnelly's chances as long as he has enough $. I think he's closer to the state's median voter in both ideology and temperament than Mourdock is, and he should be able to pick up a good chunk of Lugar's primary voters. I have this one tilt D.

    I agree that the others are tilt D. Warren should be able to ride Obama's coattails to a narrow win, and Tester and Heitkamp seem to be more popular than their opponents in two states where candidates and campaigns are especially important. NV is a vanilla D/vanilla R matchup in a state where the Dems have an overwhelming organizational edge that polls fail to pick up.

    SSP poster. 42, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 10:21:55 AM PDT

    •  Yeah I almost moved Kaine to Lean D (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Senor Unoball, atdnext, MichaelNY

      and I'm pretty sure I will by the fall since I really don't see how Allen wins while Obama does.

      I really do hope McCaskill can pull it out too, since she seems to have run a decent campaign so far and has lapped the field in fundraising.  That and while none of her opponents has the baggage of Angle (though, Steelman comes close), they would all be just as wacko conservative.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 10:27:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ummm, I wouldn't call Shelley Berkley... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

      "Vanilla D"? She's as Vegas as a pol can get! (And since I now live here, I'm saying it as a compliment.) ;-)

      Dean Heller, OTOH, is quite vanilla. He's had to run far to the right in the last 3 cycles to keep the "TEA" fueled hordes at bay, so now he's trying to flee back to the middle and make everyone forget his House record.

      While Berkley won't have as easy a time with Heller as Reid did with Angle, I'm increasingly confident she can still come out on top simply because Nevada Dems have the far superior "turnout machine" and she still has a very loyal Vegas base.

      •  heh (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext, MichaelNY

        In terms of their voting records and public rhetoric, Berkley is a conventional mainstream D and Heller a conventional mainstream R. I can see how Berkley's image might make it harder for her to appeal to rural voters than, say, Reid.

        SSP poster. 42, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 12:14:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  On voting records, you're mostly right... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Though one can argue that Shelley is a bit to the right of the Democratic base (supports estate tax cut, & can be hawkish on foreign policy) while Heller is more in line with the G-O-TEA base (he used to be more moderate as SoS, but running against Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle in 2006 scared him far to the right).

          On one hand, Shelley is having a harder time appealing to Washoe and the rurals simply because of her public image. But OTOH, her public image is beloved here in Clark, which means she can win statewide as long as she keeps Washoe close and runs up a strong double digit lead here in Clark.

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