Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Democrats tap Gen. Bill Enyart in IL-12 (193 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  2 (0+ / 0-)

    Women 48-46   
    Men    48-44

    Nonsense. Doesn't mean the topline isn't right though.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:26:28 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  The topline seems very credible (0+ / 0-)

      considering what other polls we have seen lately.

      So another non-tracker national poll without a Romney lead.

      •  Bang on the +3 average (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:36:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm very nervous for the PPP polls. (0+ / 0-)

        In Oregon, in particular. I guess it's possible to have a big and sudden but ultimately temporary drop with Independents in a state like that, but what explains it? And will he really win by less than 20 in Massachusetts?

        I know I shouldn't be all that bothered by some troubling results, but I can't help it. I guess if he's still leading in Oregon, Massachusetts, and especially Ohio, it's not that big of a deal...right?

        Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

        by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:15:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  As always (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          Follow the money.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:20:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Of course... (0+ / 0-)

            But how often do these states get polled by the campaigns?

            Also, are there any outside groups spending in a state like Oregon?

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:32:57 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  They poll almost everywhere (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              Some places more than others. I don't recall any spending in Oregon at all.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:38:34 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  I don't want to be tied in Ohio (0+ / 0-)

          so I will live with a 16 point lead in MA or 5 point lead in OR, I don't expect either one of those to be the final spread in either state and 16 points in Romney's "home state" is fine nonetheless.

          But I want to see Ohio showing up on the electoral projection sites as a dem state. The others will anyway.

          •  I just don't see it (0+ / 0-)

            being that close in Oregon (or Washington) or Massachusetts unless it's very close nationwide.

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:33:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  If it ends up close in OR, WA, MA (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              savvyspy

              It won't be close nationwide.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:39:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  That doesn't mean we won't get some polls (0+ / 0-)

              showing it that close during the campaign. Oregon especially is likely to produce some seemingly too-close polls because of the same phenomenon that consistently undercounts dem support in western states. This has been showing up in Washington, Nevada, Hawaii and even California. Resistance by Asian woman to respond to phone surveys is often cited as a cause for this, and I expect the same thing applies to other ethnic groups as well in these states.

          •  Ohio was a tossup going into election day in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

            wasn't it? If I remember, Obama was up only a couple points in the poll averages and ended up winning the state by 4 points -- and that was in a big Democratic year.

            It's far from a gimme that Ohio will be blue this time around. The fact Obama's doing as well as he is there now is a good sign.

            "Democrats have the heart to care."

            by jeepdad on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:52:52 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Bad overall samples should happen 5% of the time (0+ / 0-)

          Bad subsamples would happen significantly more frequently.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:28:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  True. I can't help but think that some of the (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus

            crosstabs we are seeing are nonsense. He might not get 96 percent of the black vote, but there's just no way Obama's getting less than 80 percent. I usually trust the top lines, but when I see a result like that, I can't help but be skeptical.

            Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

            by bjssp on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 06:35:11 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Did I Miss Some Spooky Tweets About Those Polls? (0+ / 0-)

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site