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View Diary: Elizabeth Warren, Scott Brown tied in latest PPP Massachusetts Senate poll (83 comments)

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  •  PPP Represents the WORSE Case For Democrats So (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    raster44, TofG, MichaelNY, pademocrat

    I wouldn't get too upset about this poll. After all, according to PPP:

    PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
    This poll also has a slight bias towards "Republican" when compared to the demographics of the 2008 election. This poll's sample is: "Whiter" 85% - 79%; Older, Over 65 20% - 15%; and Less Democratic 39% - 43%.

    If PPP used a 2008 "screen", I'm sure the results would be more favorable for Warren.

    And just as PPP represents the worse case for Democrats, Ras represents the best case for Repubs. And lately, Ras isn't looking too good for (R)money.

    I am not now, nor have I ever been, a member of the Republican Party.

    by OnlyWords on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 12:21:45 PM PDT

    •  well, two things (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, hifly15

      1) PPP now has an Dem House effect and was Dem leaning both in AZ-8 and in Wisconsin.

      2) A 2008 screen would be absurd; unless you think 2012 is shaping up to be a dem wave.

      19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

      by jncca on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 03:27:03 PM PDT

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      •  special elections are a tricky thing to poll (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, JBraden

        I wouldn't read too much into PPP being a bit off in AZ-08 and the Wisconsin recall.  As far as I know, nobody else even attempted a poll of AZ-08, so I can't tell if PPP would have been off from the polling consensus.

        Though it may be unsatisfying for election junkies such as ourselves, I don't think we can assign a bias towards PPP with any real certainty until after the general election, and we see how their polls stack up in a much larger sample.

        •  Good point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I don't think it's sensible to deduce a "house effect" from a couple of volatile special elections.

          Frankly, I was surprised that at least one other pollster didn't test the waters of AZ-8, considering that--on paper at least--it's a highly competitive district in its current form.  I think Barber was always considered the frontrunner out of respect for Gabby Giffords, though.

      •  PPP has no Dem house effect (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Using two specials as an example is not sensible.

        PPP has a consistent GOP bias, which is easy to see in this poll.

        It's absurd to use anything else besides 2008 numbers.  No need to use any screen, but if you do, 2008 is a better guide than anything else, unless you think all the folks who voted in 2008 all died or something.

        They same approximate electorate will vote in 2012 as 2008.  The Republicans will win if they change the minds of those voters, like they did in 2010, but turnout will be in the same ballpark.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Tue Jun 26, 2012 at 05:19:20 PM PDT

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