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View Diary: Orange to Blue: Daily Kos endorses Ami Bera in California's 7th Congressional District (56 comments)

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  •  The interesting thing about Lungren (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IllinoyedR

    is that despite Bera outraising him, despite the year 2006 and 2008, despite Obama surging in his district, despite Bera getting a lot of attention, despite Lungren's perceived extremist record, despite all the press this race got, and despite so many other negatives...

    Lungren's still there. And beating his opponent by 12% in the top two primary. What does that say about his electoral chances?

    •  I'll tell you in November (4+ / 0-)

      But while you're trying to assemble a rather pessimistic catalog that looks all the more worrisome for its length, there's less to it than meets the eye.

      "despite Bera outraising him," "despite Bera getting a lot of attention," and "despite all the press this race got,"
      Those three all go together. Obviously if you want to make the argument that Bera "should have won" despite it being 2010, feel free. For me, though, the fact that the year was what it was is enough for me to still feel quite good about Bera's chances. And not just me: Every major prognosticator has this as a Tossup.
      "despite the year 2006 and 2008," and "despite Obama surging in his district,"
      Lungren's opponent Bill Durston was badly underfunded in both of those years. The D-Trip helped out neither time, and it's exceedingly rare to win a race against an incumbent without DCCC spending. Despite that, Lungren scored less than 50% in 2008. And 2006 was, well, six years ago. The district has changed a lot, and fast.
      "despite Lungren's perceived extremist record," and "despite so many other negatives..."
      These are pretty generic, so I don't have much to say about them.
      And beating his opponent by 12% in the top two primary.
      Did you miss this?

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 01:30:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lungren is no extremist (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, Christopher Walker

        he's a well-known, mainstream candidate -- who has been in a district gerrymandered to elect a Republican.  There isn't a big mystery why he survived.

        Lungren only winning by 12 in the primary would suggest a tossup, as would the fact Brown won the district by 5 while Boxer lost it by 7.

        It is only a tossup though because Lungren is way above average for a Republican candidate.  Put an average non-incumbent Republican here, or a stiff like McClintock, and a solid Dem would be favored.  If we win this time, the seat should be safe for the decade.  (The Dem Treasurer won by 10 points, and the Dem Controller won by 20 points.)

        On the other hand, if Bera runs a poor campaign, Harris lost here by 14 points, so that is possible too.

        When we talk about "swing voters" this district may have more than any other in the state.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 01:45:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The last district was quite gerrymandered (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Nir, tommypaine, sacman701

      It went into gold country, which is very Republican and the district was drawn for a Republican. A Democrat wasn't going to win in that district, as it's too ancestrally Republican. The new one pulls in more Democratic suburbs in Sacramento County. We did pick up an Assembly district within the county in 2010 of all years, so I rate Bera's chances rather high.

      Republican performance in a very low turnout primary doesn't equal anything for November. Democrats did not show up at all in the primary.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 01:39:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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