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View Diary: Orange to Blue: Daily Kos endorses Ami Bera in California's 7th Congressional District (56 comments)

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  •  Oh, so Bera went from being down 8 to being down (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tommypaine

    14 to being down 7 in a span of a few weeks? That seems unlikely.

    •  I don't understand your response at all (eom) (0+ / 0-)

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 02:01:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, I see (0+ / 0-)

        I think you missed my point. I'm saying that based on his remarks, Bera's internal polling at the time probably looked different from that PPP poll. That is to say, if Bera's right, then PPP was wrong. It happens!

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 02:05:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Read the article (0+ / 0-)

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 02:15:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Didn't Bera say he polled around the beginning (0+ / 0-)

          of October and saw himself losing by 8? PPP was two weeks earlier.

          •  The article implies but doesn't clearly say.. (0+ / 0-)
            But in the third week of October, just weeks before the election, the conservative Super PAC American Crossroads decided to spend $682,000 on a media buy in the Sacramento market. All of their ads targeted Bera.

            Before the ads, Bera trailed by eight percent. In a short period of time, the deficit grew to 14 percent, which he said was a lot to make up in less than two weeks.

            Article says nothing about PPP.  It strongly implies Bera's internal polling was -8 circa October 20, then went to -14, then he ended up -8 on election day.  Obviously that isn't likely, especially in a seat the Dem lost -7 in 2008.

            No doubt Rove's money didn't help Bera, but the idea that he had more than a very tiny chance to win in this district when he was down by 8 point three weeks before the election is extremely unrealistic.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 02:31:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not following you (0+ / 0-)

              If Bera was at -8, then went to -14 (thanks to Rove—we'll just stipulate for a moment), then wound up at -7, that means he climbed 7 points in the final two weeks, right?

              So if that first move from -8 to -14 hadn't happened, and had Bera still experienced that +7 in the final two weeks that, according to his internal polling, did in fact happen... then he would have wound up at -1. That's awfully close.

              Obviously if you think Bera's internal polling was just wrong, that's a different story.

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 02:40:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm saying both the polling wasn't dead on (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                GradyDem

                and that -8 to -14 could be noise, and that swings like that seldom happen, and that thinking without Rove at all that he could climb from -8 three weeks from the election to win in a district where Durston lost by -7.

                Put another way, he was down by 8 points three weeks before the election, in his own more-likely-than-not-favorable-to-him internal polling.  He was 95% likely to lose.  Blaming it on Rove is silly.

                And then I'm also saying, did he not know this could happen?  Did he think he was entitled to spend more money than Lungren?

                The comments were unattractive sour grapes, blame the boogieman, and unrealistic.  At every point in this race in 2010 he was 95%+ likely to lose.  Not a good idea to pretend otherwise.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 02:54:17 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Maybe better way to put it (0+ / 0-)

                  Not so much on DKE, but on Kos there is a lot of boogieman talk, as if Karl Rove can turn any race by spending money.

                  The boogieman did not cause Bera to lose in 2010.  he lost because he ran in a Republican district in a republican year against a stronger than average Republican candidate.  He lost because he had almost no chance of winning.

                  The type of comment I want to see is: "We ran the best race we could in a very tough district, but came up short.  We were encouraged by how well we did, and look forward to running in a district created by the citizen's redistricting commission.  Blah blah..."

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 03:04:56 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  You do understand (0+ / 0-)

                    Why someone would make comments like that for public consumption, right? That running against Rove is very helpful with donors?

                    Political Director, Daily Kos

                    by David Nir on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 03:22:11 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  No I don't (0+ / 0-)

                      If a Republican said the equivalent about the DCCC everybody would laugh at the tool-ish comment.  Making yourself look silly is not a good tactic.

                      The same mentioning of Rove's money dump could have been done without the whiney boogiemanism.  

                      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                      by tommypaine on Wed Jun 27, 2012 at 08:21:34 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

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